TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will China win Intervision 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,322 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb898…1288backed Yes10c4,022$413 inLost-$413.221816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+76.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3407…8e1cbacked Yes5c1,452$77 inLost-$7730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0442…74b6backed Yes5c1,036$50 inLost-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c1,029$34 inLost-$33.875619.6%11 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes3c731$25 inLost-$25.19385.3%2 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-91.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed Yes66c303.08$199 inLost-$198.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d5…598abacked Yes23c292.04$66 inLost-$6620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c276.49$15 inLost-$14.914629.7%45 W · 417 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ea…5799backed No68c170.31$115 inWon+$54.88450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e1…8f7ebacked No79c139.23$110 inWon+$29.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4592…bab3backed Yes15c119.98$18 inLost-$17.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No35c100$35 inWon+$64.82161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf937…6b43backed Yes16c100$16 inLost-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd228…2725backed Yes17c60$10 inLost-$10.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf93…0471backed Yes17c60$10 inLost-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b3…1620backed Yes21c52.55$11 inLost-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c65…5effbacked No74c40$30 inWon+$10.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.