TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Belarus win Intervision 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,639 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb898…1288backed Yes7c3,009$211 inLost-$210.71816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+76.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed Yes28c1,000$280 inLost-$280425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes9c839.34$72 inLost-$72.16385.3%2 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-91.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Yes10c828.06$81 inLost-$81.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes8c762.2$62 inLost-$62.271020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes7c690.34$48 inLost-$48.322540%10 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2884…d0c3backed Yes6c548.86$34 inLost-$34.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc42…1e35backed Yes9c474.6$45 inLost-$44.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes6c455$28 inLost-$27.519939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes10c300$30 inLost-$29.647626.3%20 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes6c299.99$17 inLost-$17911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c5e…1d41backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes8c200$16 inLost-$163935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee7e…7cccbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes7c140.06$10 inLost-$10.111910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1024732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0442…74b6backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x787b…6ec6backed Yes24c89.52$22 inLost-$21.6160%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.