Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82d046bdd7aa14261cc0cce710eb7dd127dc32a3a819c88696c8706dc5b4dd23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 19c | 5,133$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.33 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 9c | 3,180$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +572.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 32c | 3,076$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.82 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 29c | 3,000$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.57 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 20c | 2,502$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.31 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 2,118$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 26c | 2,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.01 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 13c | 1,928$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…4453backed Yes | 17c | 1,667$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…29a4backed Yes | 18c | 1,655$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 1,649$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 6c | 1,649$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 8c | 1,589$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +233.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…2581backed Yes | 10c | 1,521$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 1,362$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.94 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes | 18c | 1,110$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.42 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…ec03backed Yes | 21c | 1,094$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 9c | 833$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 17c | 831.08$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 13c | 800$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 7c | 779$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 25c | 750.16$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 31c | 650$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 623.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 538.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bd…1446backed Yes | 47c | 533.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…88bebacked Yes | 18c | 490$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 482.6$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.88 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 26c | 390.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…06d6backed Yes | 19c | 388.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 11c | 382.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed Yes | 3c | 373.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…c9bdbacked Yes | 31c | 323.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 73c | 307.21$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 267.25$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 48c | 251.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…ff05backed Yes | 28c | 247.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 243.26$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 39c | 240.69$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 67c | 212.74$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 31c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…38f7backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…ae19backed Yes | 24c | 196.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 59c | 174.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 19c | 167.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…31a7backed Yes | 9c | 161$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a46…0bebbacked Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 74c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…a3f4backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 40c | 81.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7ebcbacked No | 78c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…ad41backed Yes | 42c | 69.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 32c | 69.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 43c | 61.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…5cc1backed Yes | 44c | 56.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…4787backed Yes | 29c | 51.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f48…7e91backed No | 79c | 49.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…0b3cbacked No | 70c | 45.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…5e5abacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b66cbacked No | 79c | 44.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28a…adf8backed No | 79c | 43.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa8…5ce7backed No | 64c | 42.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes | 44c | 42.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496c…7220backed Yes | 47c | 42.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fc…b667backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…eaf1backed No | 70c | 40.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 31c | 39.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d89…c262backed No | 57c | 31.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…94b7backed No | 57c | 27.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…67adbacked Yes | 44c | 25.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf718…c127backed No | 79c | 22.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.