TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x45b2…cbc1backed No0c20,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803010%3 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes73c6,202$4,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.8410433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes16c5,879$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,928.3312820.3%26 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes25c5,706$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,261.526523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes7c2,816$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,606.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+572.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5be9…9106backed Yes11c2,585$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.322236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+42.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes5c2,175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,075.43837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+233.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes13c2,048$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,791.5423330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes71c1,834$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.56922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes78c1,653$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.891233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes16c1,645$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+91.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19dc…ec03backed No37c1,379$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes9c1,350$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.026023.3%14 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c1,136$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.2815148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed No25c999.99$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes3c969.35$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.352330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes10c940.84$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.423435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b0d…1744backed Yes24c892$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.391010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes36c850$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.15850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+52.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04d7…bb2abacked Yes77c776.83$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.83475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes37c763$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.051050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x404c…48b2backed Yes4c585$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+1,251.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No20c517.76$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.496827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes43c467.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes37c464.21$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.6822433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No65c445.49$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.7611359.3%67 W · 46 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes78c436.37$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.371546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed Yes15c406$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.483013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb5…ed22backed Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes20c391.43$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.4229913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes17c375$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.683253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0f8…c69ebacked Yes50c365.98$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.62250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd16…0be8backed Yes67c288.64$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.57450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No57c269.74$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.57425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked No26c226$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.281631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes48c221.98$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.21450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb914…d12ebacked No65c214.82$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8eb…da8abacked Yes77c205.1$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55dd…8702backed No33c200.38$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6740%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x016c…ae19backed Yes53c189.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e8…f498backed Yes62c189.3$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes7c188.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.092850%14 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49d8…67f5backed No76c156.23$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No23c151.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.143847.4%18 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes75c150$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d06…da8dbacked No38c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x78d3…75e8backed No55c145.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed Yes60c140.71$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.727100%7 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf88b…232abacked Yes25c140$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+292.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No52c129.85$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.12520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-74.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8a5…94b7backed No61c125.57$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee4…fa88backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked No55c99.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.947525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes44c93.64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.444027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f2…d8efbacked Yes71c93.57$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes35c93.45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.87650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+36.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0804…049dbacked No66c91.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3814…f0bfbacked No71c90$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cc4…b05abacked No55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fe…c8c2backed Yes74c87.96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes76c87.85$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No31c85.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.562524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c7…4421backed Yes45c85.45$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.21333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes35c80.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.631060%6 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1804…bd47backed No60c80.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a4…b510backed Yes42c74.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes35c70.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed No64c70$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.773928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No65c66.74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.431553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes39c64.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+113.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51d4…bedcbacked No58c56.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd121…99debacked Yes39c51.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No73c50.69$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.984744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…0383backed Yes40c50.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb12…6a49backed Yes71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x120b…5311backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1500…397fbacked Yes37c49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes76c46.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb543…410fbacked No57c44.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No49c41.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e88…caf0backed No76c41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d8…38f7backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d4…5e5abacked Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+34.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4938…4d58backed Yes49c39.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes43c36.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9913338.3%51 W · 82 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb93…e045backed Yes55c36.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes51c32.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+693.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43a9…faebbacked No50c32.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc639…c5a2backed Yes35c31.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26ea…67adbacked Yes48c31.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.241127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbba3…f017backed Yes35c31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+107.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed No50c29.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3701…ce16backed No58c29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9368…6f3fbacked Yes72c27.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3031…4c1bbacked Yes74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes57c26.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x350a…3502backed No64c25.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3042…020bbacked No64c22.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.