Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe19651304fdcf558a7b62dae8b8924b06a067f822e6ffaab5cb354b59652b106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 9c | 25,344$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,236.88 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 0c | 11,031$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 13c | 6,090$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.76 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 0c | 4,861$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…e49abacked Yes | 1c | 3,989$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 78c | 3,000$2,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60b…5f4abacked Yes | 3c | 2,667$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,248$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 3c | 2,185$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…7ebfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,173$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 1,873$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.31 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,206$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.73 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 22c | 1,034$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.99 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 19c | 1,002$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…ebb5backed Yes | 3c | 996.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 938$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 12c | 900$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 22c | 808.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.37 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cd…10d8backed Yes | 6c | 715$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 23c | 680$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +233.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 18c | 582.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked Yes | 2c | 511.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…d0f3backed Yes | 24c | 341.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 11c | 310$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked No | 79c | 280.3$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…a4cdbacked Yes | 5c | 239.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…ff52backed Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 22c | 80.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…5deabacked Yes | 29c | 72.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 73c | 72.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 29c | 69.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 66.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…d3a7backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…4fedbacked Yes | 25c | 60.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b5…0b65backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +183.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 76c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec4…226fbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.