Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdca21a95c1eff6d9dd977d032aa2bec9877d96a725c04cf590613de43e6f6b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 12c | 17,241$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.6 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 14c | 7,441$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.19 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 8c | 3,865$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.66 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…e49abacked Yes | 2c | 2,672$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.5 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 0c | 2,378$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 1c | 2,024$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…e914backed Yes | 4c | 1,988$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 20c | 1,200$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 19c | 1,130$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.07 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 4c | 1,078$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 892.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 77c | 839$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.97 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 820.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d3…75e8backed Yes | 5c | 806.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…b5c3backed Yes | 17c | 771.33$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 20c | 680$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +233.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…1744backed Yes | 18c | 675.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 15c | 653$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 21c | 650$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed Yes | 3c | 604.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f97…96bdbacked Yes | 22c | 536.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…3bc0backed Yes | 3c | 387.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e2…b98cbacked Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…ed73backed Yes | 4c | 343.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 18c | 316.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 23c | 304$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed Yes | 24c | 300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60b…5f4abacked Yes | 5c | 290.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 12c | 275$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -6.5wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked Yes | 20c | 175.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2519…9a98backed No | 80c | 150.67$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5a…f882backed Yes | 23c | 128.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 80c | 118.43$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…d1bdbacked Yes | 20c | 110.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d10abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…5deabacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…0afabacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed No | 79c | 16.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.