Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd36df08d015eee49b0ac966b4bc7641d885529925f4f179dc119ea9176e012f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 10c | 26,583$2,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,598.54 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 16c | 6,319$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.92 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 0c | 6,123$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…e49abacked Yes | 1c | 3,286$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 12c | 2,442$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.42 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…e914backed Yes | 3c | 2,438$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 77c | 2,228$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.67 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 23c | 2,110$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 1,625$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.78 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…b072backed Yes | 1c | 1,427$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,017$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 20c | 842.6$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.24 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fc…b667backed Yes | 4c | 768.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 77c | 749.99$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 26c | 680$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +233.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 18c | 650$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 590.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed Yes | 3c | 587.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f97…96bdbacked Yes | 21c | 576.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60b…5f4abacked Yes | 4c | 525.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 8c | 469.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 3c | 380.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 352$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 16c | 198.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Yes | 11c | 177.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 19c | 174$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…610bbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…88e0backed Yes | 18c | 110.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2519…9a98backed Yes | 24c | 109$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…ff52backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…5deabacked Yes | 20c | 81.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…8b0abacked No | 78c | 14.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.