TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x06d0…375d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: College Football, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category College Football at 53 out of 100; worst F1 at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2025, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Yankeesbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$18.71
Mariners vs. Tigersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$18
Cubs vs. Brewersbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.78
Dodgers vs. Philliesbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$21.27
Tigers vs. Marinersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.74
Yankees vs. Blue Jaysbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.91
Cubs vs. Brewersbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.9
Red Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+68.3%+$30.3
White Sox vs. Twinsbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$19.39
Dodgers vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+100%+$11.35
Yankees vs. Astrosbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.28
Phillies vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$11.48
Yankees vs. Astrosbacked Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.6
Braves vs. Cubsbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.76
Blue Jays vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.2
Athletics vs. Cardinalsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.12
Mets vs. Tigersbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$15.82
Orioles vs. Padres: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.14
Phillies vs. Brewers: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$11.63
Blue Jays vs. Reds: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.58
All 20 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Falcons vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+49.3%+$12.57
Ravens vs. Dolphinsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$5.72
Vikings vs. Chargersbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.55
Buccaneers vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$21.71
Steelers vs. Bengalsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.68
Buccaneers vs. Seahawksbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$18.66
All 6 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 16, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Delaware Blue Hens (-3.5)backed Jacksonville State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$19.31
TCU vs. North Carolinabacked TCU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$21.29
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$26.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$26.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$24.34
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.