MLB · resolved market
Blue Jays vs. Reds: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5b031fcafc7066c3dd0a58e382bbb79a252e6aef562a0c93a610bf9fabfaa17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 47c | 913.95$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.74 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 53c | 599.94$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.97 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 57c | 554.77$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.55 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409b…d3dabacked Under | 46c | 432.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 43c | 413.05$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.94 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 253.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…2c1abacked Over | 56c | 180.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 53c | 97.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Over | 52c | 93.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…e4dabacked Under | 47c | 83.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…796abacked Under | 48c | 71.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b0…1850backed Under | 47c | 66.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…6862backed Under | 46c | 63.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4956…061bbacked Under | 46c | 51.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e40…c16dbacked Over | 57c | 44.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…9bfebacked Over | 56c | 39.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…1ec2backed Over | 56c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10c…ff52backed Over | 53c | 34.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…375dbacked Under | 46c | 33.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…7eb5backed Over | 53c | 32.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae7…9836backed Over | 56c | 32.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd0…c6c4backed Over | 56c | 32.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed2…53f6backed Under | 46c | 31.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…8b7fbacked Over | 57c | 31.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…c927backed Under | 46c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…b695backed Over | 53c | 29.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a78…028bbacked Over | 58c | 29.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…2a0abacked Under | 48c | 28.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…8508backed Over | 53c | 28.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…8ae1backed Over | 56c | 26.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4834…850dbacked Over | 56c | 24.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…28bebacked Under | 46c | 22.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e3…ff1abacked Over | 58c | 22.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb3…73c6backed Over | 55c | 19.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…cf9bbacked Over | 58c | 18.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blue Jays vs. Reds: O/U 7.5this page
- Blue Jays vs. RedsReds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.