TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Blue Jays vs. Reds

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Redsof Blue Jays, Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$234,786
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$237,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,786 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Reds53c101,800$53,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,968.2338043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Blue Jays47c41,600$19,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,55222852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Blue Jays48c35,941$17,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,141.881,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Blue Jays47c29,966$14,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,0841,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Reds53c24,918$13,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,811.3135854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Blue Jays47c15,000$7,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,05034245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Blue Jays47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jays55c8,709$4,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,780.782,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Blue Jays47c7,900$3,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,71344456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Reds48c7,785$3,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,086.111,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Reds51c6,739$3,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,292.1278445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Blue Jays47c6,096$2,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,863.861,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Reds52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,879.977659.2%45 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Blue Jays48c5,557$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.3625453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Reds48c5,476$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,826.279,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Blue Jays53c4,793$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,527.896845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Reds50c4,600$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,284.961,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Reds35c4,587$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,993.621747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds53c3,753$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.512,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Blue Jays43c2,615$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.168,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Reds53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.9956451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x709a…20b6backed Blue Jays51c2,383$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.37666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+75.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Blue Jays47c2,106$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.0438047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Reds52c2,036$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.2833845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Reds53c1,871$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.261,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f8…3a79backed Blue Jays32c1,582$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.471735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d22…ec35backed Reds70c1,362$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Blue Jays48c1,250$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60065248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Blue Jays26c1,161$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30053448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Blue Jays46c999.98$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.9983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Blue Jays41c962$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.5710744.9%48 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Blue Jays48c906.04$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.91,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Reds53c835.91$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.421,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Blue Jays43c799.69$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.4921246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Blue Jays47c740$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.82347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Blue Jays48c735.29$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.9470946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Blue Jays49c717.37$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.384,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Reds47c665$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.0543946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Blue Jays47c626.91$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.6540152.4%210 W · 191 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Blue Jays48c625$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Reds52c550$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Reds53c512$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.771,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed Blue Jays36c501.65$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacdf…0ec4backed Reds53c473.23$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.4219452.6%102 W · 92 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Blue Jays46c458.33$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21088549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc3…8fffbacked Blue Jays24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Blue Jays47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1883,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Blue Jays24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9617243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7381…5b63backed Blue Jays20c400$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.120648.1%99 W · 107 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc4…1ce3backed Blue Jays36c390$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.218446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x409b…d3dabacked Reds53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.362343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d61…1808backed Blue Jays48c354.17$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17011056.4%62 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a5d…a6e9backed Reds6c345.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.92944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+158.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Blue Jays14c327.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.255232.7%17 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Reds52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14430151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Blue Jays47c299.36$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.78852.3%46 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Reds36c296.8$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.81,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Blue Jays48c275$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13218649.5%92 W · 94 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ac…2c1abacked Reds54c251.85$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.852065%13 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Blue Jays32c232.56$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2638741.1%159 W · 228 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Reds17c223$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.637643.4%33 W · 43 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Blue Jays48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010352.4%54 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Blue Jays48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9997…af3bbacked Blue Jays48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005763.2%36 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Reds53c207.55$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5599951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Blue Jays45c200.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6215033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1681…76a7backed Blue Jays50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002060%12 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0249…c622backed Blue Jays50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4d…67a5backed Blue Jays34c199.96$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9812352.8%65 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Reds52c197.97$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8673149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Reds55c185.37$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.866,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81d6…bec9backed Blue Jays46c173.91$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Blue Jays48c166.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8078454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Reds51c156.44$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1610459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Reds54c149.99$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9912152.1%63 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Reds61c136.73$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1870841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Reds52c136.33$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0880955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Reds52c134.98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7314055.7%78 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc807…8f16backed Blue Jays26c133.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.08757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Reds54c127.78$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7821853.2%116 W · 102 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd3…1174backed Reds25c121.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2819052.6%100 W · 90 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed Blue Jays18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Reds53c120$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9685047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc655…8467backed Blue Jays47c111$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1724351.4%125 W · 118 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Blue Jays46c110$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.67444.6%33 W · 41 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x71f9…8518backed Blue Jays48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Blue Jays48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Blue Jays20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2045732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Blue Jays47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6735245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Reds62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3868769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Blue Jays47c95.19$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.741,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Reds49c89$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4820747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf58c…2d2cbacked Blue Jays46c88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2906…5ae8backed Blue Jays25c84.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-74.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8db3…7febbacked Blue Jays24c82.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Reds53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.625548.6%124 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Blue Jays30c75.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6566645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9376…1655backed Blue Jays48c72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5620649.5%102 W · 104 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Blue Jays57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.741751.3%214 W · 203 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Blue Jays38c69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0565549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.