TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Mariners vs. Tigers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tigersof Mariners, Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,488,793
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,554,392

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,488,793 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 578 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3151…0977backed Tigers70c173,297$121,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,025.6415353.6%82 W · 71 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Mariners57c170,168$96,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,228.449146.2%42 W · 49 L-11.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Mariners38c119,188$45,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,726.246653%35 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Mariners50c110,000$55,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,0001963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Tigers50c81,380$40,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,390.741,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Mariners24c68,775$16,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,427.6925453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Tigers46c59,622$27,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,196.3745248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Tigers49c56,315$27,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,991.2855053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Tigers74c50,567$37,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,252.2935854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Tigers50c50,000$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,0007651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Mariners52c49,230$25,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,599.67753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Tigers50c44,738$22,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,280.112462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Mariners52c40,914$21,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,227.042356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7412…0ccbbacked Mariners51c30,488$15,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,601.932445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Tigers50c30,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,0002060%12 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Mariners49c30,000$14,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,699.8753150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Mariners59c22,771$13,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,343.261,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Tigers48c22,550$10,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,629.0943949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Tigers50c22,287$11,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,143.5943247.2%204 W · 228 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Tigers50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,000.0213353.4%71 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Tigers49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2009666.7%64 W · 32 L+16.4wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Mariners32c18,199$5,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,756.2517136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Tigers49c18,150$8,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,272.6663152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mariners34c18,055$6,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,218.4246239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Mariners50c17,513$8,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,838.621,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Tigers47c15,646$7,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,269.014965.3%32 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Tigers49c15,000$7,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,650580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+45.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Tigers50c14,419$7,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,209.316855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Tigers22c13,543$2,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,616.451,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Tigers49c13,500$6,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8853826.3%10 W · 28 L-6.9wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-42.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5681…e113backed Tigers50c12,388$6,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,193.88966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Mariners50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003040%12 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Mariners50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00019649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf41…5562backed Mariners50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Tigers55c9,997$5,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,544.4614153.9%76 W · 65 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Tigers50c9,322$4,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,652.765251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Tigers47c8,406$3,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,494.0533554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Mariners41c8,318$3,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,378.882142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Mariners50c8,039$4,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,019.479462.8%59 W · 35 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tigers54c8,007$4,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,663.612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Tigers50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00044749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Tigers50c7,600$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8002365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Tigers49c7,569$3,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,850.0623455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Tigers49c7,003$3,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,571.6720850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Mariners51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0602937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-31.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Mariners51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06010647.2%50 W · 56 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Tigers49c6,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.997349.3%36 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0453…fcf0backed Tigers51c5,700$2,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7932100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+117.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Mariners1c5,641$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.245053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc0…a79bbacked Mariners50c5,100$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Tigers50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50051151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5df…2f2dbacked Mariners50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Mariners4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+254.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Mariners2c5,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Tigers49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.9771751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Mariners50c4,800$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4002536%9 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Mariners1c4,786$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.148762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Tigers50c4,716$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,358.241,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…32a3backed Mariners50c4,702$2,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x305e…7d29backed Tigers49c4,632$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,362.243345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Mariners1c4,613$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0640629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Tigers62c4,275$2,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.352,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Mariners58c4,258$2,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb406…4964backed Tigers49c4,127$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,104.2610154.5%55 W · 46 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Tigers49c4,062$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.629749.5%48 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Tigers49c4,042$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.229947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed Tigers50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+44.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Mariners51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0407548%36 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02bd…1d82backed Mariners5c3,970$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4992…6f5cbacked Tigers52c3,850$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8481361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Mariners50c3,799$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.349,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe187…b1b5backed Tigers51c3,700$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8132100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+117.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tigers46c3,631$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.151,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Tigers49c3,600$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,83626453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Tigers50c3,360$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.817351.4%89 W · 84 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Tigers47c3,260$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.17341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5d…9a7fbacked Tigers50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Tigers50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5002857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa74c…afb1backed Tigers50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+71.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Tigers51c2,941$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.1863052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Mariners53c2,844$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb99…5d0fbacked Mariners47c2,812$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.484057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa52c…ef80backed Mariners41c2,650$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.272737%10 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Tigers43c2,622$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.934,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Tigers50c2,576$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.0124040.8%98 W · 142 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Tigers50c2,528$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.8911551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Tigers58c2,420$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.9376456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1be4…47c3backed Tigers50c2,358$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd724…b805backed Mariners61c2,276$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.112152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Tigers44c2,273$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.734252.4%22 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Mariners50c2,256$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12891749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Mariners1c2,256$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.544564.4%29 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Tigers27c2,222$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.2219540%78 W · 117 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Tigers50c2,222$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11198149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x075f…833cbacked Tigers49c2,188$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Tigers50c2,086$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.335658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Tigers49c2,040$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.44452.3%23 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Tigers25c2,032$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.046,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Mariners48c2,000$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.6432042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff0c…c3e4backed Mariners51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.