TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xff0c…c3e4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
24
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst MLB at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+145.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Pelicansbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+33.3%+$175
Suns vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,206Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,205.98
Bulls vs. Nuggetsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$996Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+733.3%+$7,303.98
Timberwolves vs. Jazzbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,314Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+37%+$486
Kings vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+25%+$40
All 5 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brewers vs. Cubsbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,193Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,192.5
Phillies vs. Dodgersbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,840Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,840
Phillies vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$126
Brewers vs. Cubsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,855Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$1,645
Mariners vs. Tigersbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,020
All 5 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Navy Midshipmen vs. Bucknell Bisonbacked Navy Midshipmen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+31.6%+$96
Vermont Catamounts vs. Albany Great Danesbacked Vermont Catamounts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$476
Stony Brook Seawolves vs. Pacific Tigersbacked Pacific Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,170Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+53.8%+$630
All 3 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+31.6%+$96
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs megoshort (BO3)backed MANA eSports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,136Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,136
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Lada Togliattibacked HC Dynamo Moscow · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+29.9%+$126.5
KHL: HC Sochi vs. HC Dynamo Moscowbacked HC Dynamo Moscow · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$497Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$497
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Real Madrid vs. Joventutbacked Joventut · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$219
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+31.6%+$240
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Verdant vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Champions Roundbacked WLGaming Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.