TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,227 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60b2…3ccebacked PARIVISION75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick56cpaid+41.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy14c7,582$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.252,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked PARIVISION77c4,222$3,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.9113262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Nigma Galaxy26c4,170$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.5719047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ab…edaabacked Nigma Galaxy5c4,021$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.49200%0 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Nigma Galaxy25c3,574$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.433036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Nigma Galaxy24c3,443$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.4212351.2%63 W · 60 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d7c…981cbacked PARIVISION76c3,074$2,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.01757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Nigma Galaxy25c3,022$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.58046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd958…0e3cbacked Nigma Galaxy24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bcc…2077backed Nigma Galaxy24c2,900$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945b…27c7backed Nigma Galaxy24c2,800$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Nigma Galaxy20c2,699$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.5930138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Nigma Galaxy7c2,670$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3616232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked Nigma Galaxy22c2,242$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7514446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked PARIVISION78c2,133$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.2617444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Nigma Galaxy13c2,000$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25514947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Nigma Galaxy24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48021847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Nigma Galaxy24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9914515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbd5d…9a7fbacked Nigma Galaxy24c1,800$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Nigma Galaxy24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36039936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Nigma Galaxy24c1,442$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3508349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf680…63eabacked PARIVISION76c1,400$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa74c…afb1backed PARIVISION76c1,200$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…9982backed PARIVISION76c1,200$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Nigma Galaxy24c1,150$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.6346535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nigma Galaxy14c1,123$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8211145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nigma Galaxy15c1,115$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1310833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked PARIVISION75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2508950.6%45 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed PARIVISION74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2604252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed Nigma Galaxy25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff0c…c3e4backed PARIVISION76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Nigma Galaxy24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b26…e5edbacked PARIVISION76c999.99$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd3…c333backed PARIVISION76c900$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2161100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc903…9f8fbacked PARIVISION76c900$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2162100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+89.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61cd…528cbacked PARIVISION76c800$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x440f…b7d8backed PARIVISION76c800$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked PARIVISION78c798$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.5611855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6673…8a4cbacked Nigma Galaxy24c776.33$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Nigma Galaxy18c772.28$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13815131.8%48 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Nigma Galaxy23c746.99$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.812133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy19c733.01$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0989749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b48…1769backed PARIVISION76c700$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa17…3aa2backed PARIVISION76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.898557.6%49 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7426…b4f5backed PARIVISION76c600$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy8c559.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.771,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Nigma Galaxy16c550.12$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.749837.8%37 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95a5…a523backed Nigma Galaxy29c518.84$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1533040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f28…e43ebacked Nigma Galaxy10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked PARIVISION73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1352100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Nigma Galaxy5c499.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.370236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed PARIVISION77c489.42$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4226453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed PARIVISION76c473.64$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.6745951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Nigma Galaxy15c400$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110745.8%49 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy4c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked PARIVISION77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9215653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5951…b412backed PARIVISION76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa082…320abacked PARIVISION76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8979…9428backed PARIVISION76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.748661.6%53 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed PARIVISION80c376.1$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.656848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Nigma Galaxy27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Nigma Galaxy22c368.32$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0311847.5%56 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Nigma Galaxy24c361.53$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b00…7cbbbacked PARIVISION74c349.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked Nigma Galaxy23c331$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.64812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick43cpaid-75%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Nigma Galaxy24c303.26$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.564940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Nigma Galaxy24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Nigma Galaxy25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked PARIVISION77c299.99$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6914251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Nigma Galaxy22c294.79$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8549133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…3e2bbacked PARIVISION77c286.68$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.68683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick65cpaid+28.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Nigma Galaxy16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe86c…bb51backed Nigma Galaxy8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed PARIVISION76c243.85$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.67047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Nigma Galaxy23c230.81$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0956955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked PARIVISION76c230.26$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.264156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed PARIVISION75c222$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.55044%22 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed PARIVISION77c219$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked Nigma Galaxy22c216$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f25…8c36backed Nigma Galaxy24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Nigma Galaxy8c208$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.333354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed PARIVISION71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Nigma Galaxy7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149423.4%22 W · 72 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Nigma Galaxy24c199.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477226.4%19 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x544e…2d9fbacked Nigma Galaxy25c186$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.56943.5%30 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e1…3ff3backed PARIVISION76c171.05$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.051963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x728a…df69backed Nigma Galaxy25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c61…470fbacked Nigma Galaxy23c159.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.19544.2%42 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c9…bacfbacked Nigma Galaxy21c154.84$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.161540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Nigma Galaxy26c150$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.58223.2%19 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked Nigma Galaxy12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.57236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Nigma Galaxy25c140$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352619.2%5 W · 21 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-59.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed Nigma Galaxy11c136.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510945%49 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked PARIVISION76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5812061.7%74 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Nigma Galaxy23c129$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.67944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked PARIVISION80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2516665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d8…c8c0backed Nigma Galaxy24c109$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.