Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaccb6a11052710e488f160c466ffb9698743621c8235fd7696a50a3500f57097
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 9c | 5,085$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.67 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…dbd1backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 4,912$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.47 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 13c | 3,127$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.84 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed PARIVISION | 72c | 1,809$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.83 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Nigma Galaxy | 5c | 1,526$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed PARIVISION | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Nigma Galaxy | 17c | 1,187$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.18 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed PARIVISION | 74c | 1,147$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.7 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION | 69c | 1,065$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.5 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION | 69c | 1,030$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.74 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa17…3aa2backed PARIVISION | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked PARIVISION | 70c | 250.56$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…3d20backed PARIVISION | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed PARIVISION | 70c | 225.71$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 217.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed PARIVISION | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked PARIVISION | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Nigma Galaxy | 5c | 198.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 23c | 123.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4f…ce1fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 99.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked PARIVISION | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 49.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed PARIVISION | 78c | 18.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…749dbacked PARIVISION | 74c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3)PARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.