TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Split: Andrej Nedic vs Jelle Sels

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Andrej Nedicof Andrej Nedic, Jelle Sels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$244,050

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,050 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Jelle Sels5c21,991$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.767,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Jelle Sels9c20,048$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.631,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f60…a419backed Jelle Sels0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82e2…ec75backed Jelle Sels0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Jelle Sels10c8,825$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.5311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aee…fad4backed Andrej Nedic73c4,775$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.0124557.6%141 W · 104 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cda…2de5backed Andrej Nedic64c3,959$2,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.376157.4%35 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Jelle Sels36c2,792$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0051758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Jelle Sels17c2,779$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.223,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f2…a822backed Andrej Nedic60c2,702$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.6611158.6%65 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Jelle Sels38c2,404$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.1318247.3%86 W · 96 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Jelle Sels27c2,092$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.854,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ec…c1f5backed Andrej Nedic72c2,083$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.3315862.7%99 W · 59 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce4d…ade4backed Jelle Sels1c1,855$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.832352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Jelle Sels40c1,792$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.954339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf13a…ef05backed Jelle Sels8c1,719$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Andrej Nedic62c1,713$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.8920847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Jelle Sels29c1,677$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.372452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Jelle Sels35c1,637$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.183,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa862…938cbacked Jelle Sels6c1,546$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9886…bb8abacked Jelle Sels17c1,235$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Jelle Sels29c1,211$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.2956757.1%324 W · 243 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b7…f6d3backed Jelle Sels13c1,013$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f0…3206backed Jelle Sels40c927.57$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.033036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945b…27c7backed Jelle Sels28c900$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25260%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Andrej Nedic71c851.83$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.931,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c32…d322backed Andrej Nedic72c833.33$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.3312066.7%80 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Jelle Sels29c800$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2322,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc903…9f8fbacked Jelle Sels28c750$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2274…988ebacked Jelle Sels11c747.01$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.172040%8 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa446…d9c6backed Jelle Sels36c658$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8815354.2%83 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Jelle Sels9c568.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jelle Sels16c534.64$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.111,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jelle Sels5c529.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.412,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…c376backed Jelle Sels7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Jelle Sels28c450$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.51,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fef…5946backed Andrej Nedic72c416.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.679761.9%60 W · 37 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Andrej Nedic65c410.81$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.9924229.8%72 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Jelle Sels28c408$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.397,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf4…d0cfbacked Jelle Sels28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Jelle Sels27c339.5$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.747,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Andrej Nedic62c322.45$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.5327543.3%119 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd646…6832backed Andrej Nedic73c317.19$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.192161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf77c…61cabacked Jelle Sels20c307$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.411846.6%55 W · 63 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x440f…b7d8backed Andrej Nedic72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bcc…2077backed Andrej Nedic72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Andrej Nedic72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.782,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd5d…9a7fbacked Andrej Nedic72c276.18$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x500e…6118backed Andrej Nedic73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9723965.3%156 W · 83 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jelle Sels26c271.61$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.378,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Andrej Nedic58c262$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.041,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Jelle Sels12c254.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.62,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Jelle Sels28c247.15$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.171,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Jelle Sels28c237.89$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6635040.9%143 W · 207 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Jelle Sels17c228.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.564,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc304…6a21backed Jelle Sels31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Jelle Sels7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6dc…ab58backed Jelle Sels42c187.45$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.13836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ace…3afdbacked Jelle Sels42c180$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.612152.1%63 W · 58 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x400d…e759backed Jelle Sels30c180$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5460856.6%344 W · 264 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Jelle Sels28c178.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3354434.2%186 W · 358 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Andrej Nedic64c172.01$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.491,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf680…63eabacked Andrej Nedic72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd958…0e3cbacked Andrej Nedic72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74c…afb1backed Andrej Nedic72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…9982backed Andrej Nedic72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff0c…c3e4backed Andrej Nedic72c149.98$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Andrej Nedic71c140$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Andrej Nedic73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9957349.6%284 W · 289 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Jelle Sels21c133.09$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8559440.2%239 W · 355 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Jelle Sels22c131.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.393,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Jelle Sels29c129.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2836333.9%123 W · 240 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Jelle Sels13c125.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.46,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x482c…4da1backed Jelle Sels38c116.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.317447.7%83 W · 91 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Andrej Nedic62c110.13$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5296755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Jelle Sels27c103.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830452%158 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c47…1189backed Jelle Sels35c100.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353455.9%19 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+26.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc414…d870backed Jelle Sels28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-64.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Jelle Sels10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030844.5%137 W · 171 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Andrej Nedic73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked Jelle Sels12c96.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9616369.3%113 W · 50 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+14.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Andrej Nedic79c93.79$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Jelle Sels39c80.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f2…692ebacked Andrej Nedic64c78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0853457.7%308 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x955f…2e25backed Jelle Sels13c77.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.016939.1%27 W · 42 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2fc…a7c1backed Jelle Sels35c71.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4038…c6cfbacked Andrej Nedic72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa262…c8babacked Andrej Nedic73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.494259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Andrej Nedic73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.496869.1%47 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Jelle Sels30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2064350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Jelle Sels27c65.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8733651.5%173 W · 163 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Jelle Sels25c62.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.431,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f26…be98backed Andrej Nedic72c61.11$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Jelle Sels30c57.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.142,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked Jelle Sels43c54.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.618855.7%49 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Jelle Sels27c53.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.451,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a57…913fbacked Andrej Nedic71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.412361.8%76 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Andrej Nedic63c49.36$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0957252.3%299 W · 273 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Jelle Sels40c48.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3453544.1%236 W · 299 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc14f…7d8dbacked Andrej Nedic67c48.18$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.91866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.