MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94257b881fb19867cfb25f8916480e05f9f2782eb2e24b3e26c70f2244f08eae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Seattle Mariners | 66c | 12,493$8,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,305.97 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Detroit Tigers | 40c | 6,001$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,601.37 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Detroit Tigers | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 2,433$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.78 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 2,227$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Detroit Tigers | 33c | 1,200$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 700.65$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.43 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Detroit Tigers | 36c | 457.63$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.69 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 358.47$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.59 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Detroit Tigers | 34c | 356.69$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.1 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 329.68$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.36 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 199$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.32 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Detroit Tigers | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Detroit Tigers | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Detroit Tigers | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Mariners vs. TigersTigers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.