MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc55df3318fdd4a083009ec09ac2c94bf36525a4a24afb26fb7f49eda42e568
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 48c | 23,204$11,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,066.22 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 52c | 9,111$4,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,737.72 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 52c | 7,640$3,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,962.41 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Over | 50c | 6,110$3,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 52c | 5,055$2,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,628.32 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 4,881$2,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412.51 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 2,891$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.47 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 51c | 1,963$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.25 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.17 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 52c | 1,625$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.22 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Under | 49c | 1,318$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.82 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 50c | 1,122$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.4 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Under | 49c | 1,025$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.25 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 769.21$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…e990backed Under | 60c | 689.66$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 49c | 495.31$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.77 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 490.03$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Under | 51c | 333$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.83 | 666 | 45.5%303 W · 363 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 51c | 269$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…bb41backed Under | 51c | 191.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 180$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…7422backed Under | 51c | 145.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 70c | 129$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked Under | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…435cbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 45c | 92.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Over | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 56c | 69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79e…eac5backed Over | 44c | 67.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Under | 53c | 58.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Over | 50c | 49.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…7d0dbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 54c | 38.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3044…834bbacked Under | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Mariners vs. TigersTigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.