MLB · resolved market
Phillies vs. Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66ee9e9b7ea4a8f127d0e4ca4a0e2f0471cccb80c3a0a5ff7ea7135015425068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 41c | 1,750$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.5 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 59c | 1,535$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.54 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 59c | 464.05$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.62 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 38c | 411.92$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Under | 39c | 396.07$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.47 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Over | 61c | 380$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Over | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 36c | 173.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a78…028bbacked Under | 41c | 61.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…3908backed Under | 39c | 51.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b4…0e31backed Under | 40c | 48.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…796abacked Over | 64c | 43.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4834…850dbacked Under | 40c | 42.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…6862backed Over | 62c | 31.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x953c…6e17backed Under | 40c | 31.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…b4e0backed Over | 62c | 31.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +34%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…375dbacked Over | 62c | 30.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b0…1850backed Under | 40c | 30.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…77d4backed Over | 64c | 28.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…1ec2backed Over | 64c | 28.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…7eb5backed Over | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…e4dabacked Over | 62c | 27.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10c…ff52backed Over | 63c | 24.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…df13backed Over | 63c | 23.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…529bbacked Over | 62c | 22.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…2a0abacked Over | 64c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa7…fed7backed Over | 62c | 17.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…28bebacked Over | 62c | 16.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phillies vs. Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Phillies vs. BrewersPhillies won
- Spread: Brewers (-1.5)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.