TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$480,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$363,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,342 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2be3…688fbacked Yes29c23,047$6,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,735.763420.6%7 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed Yes25c17,697$4,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,336.75947.4%7 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d1c…ca14backed Yes0c16,130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-78.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes8c12,297$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.37858.2%7 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes14c9,084$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2535325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x969a…e4c5backed Yes18c9,009$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.5111310.6%12 W · 101 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-56%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes25c8,346$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.5553817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes17c8,209$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.57014.3%10 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes22c7,185$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.3145911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes18c5,556$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.294637%17 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes12c5,546$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.2662412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes24c5,457$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.0543719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0783…dd27backed Yes16c5,336$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.69812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes13c5,318$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.9528534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes18c5,310$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941.959423.4%22 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-23.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes18c4,415$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.2315313.1%20 W · 133 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes21c4,361$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.7928113.5%38 W · 243 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes24c3,963$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.641017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes16c3,745$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.6957222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes20c3,044$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.386314.3%9 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c2,853$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.412,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53c…67a5backed Yes13c2,618$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes17c2,531$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.15249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe31b…5069backed Yes29c2,478$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes48c2,099$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.35418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5637…7599backed Yes11c1,995$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2273122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff0…df18backed Yes31c1,981$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.772317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes26c1,964$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.324618.7%46 W · 200 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes20c1,899$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.729331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed No75c1,845$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.03785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick74cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes12c1,778$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2815520%31 W · 124 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes18c1,692$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.092528%7 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes22c1,656$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.0484616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153876.5%25 W · 362 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes10c1,430$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6213818.8%26 W · 112 L-0.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes21c1,405$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.235514.5%8 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No70c1,368$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.9923464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes11c1,302$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.975111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd120…5ae5backed Yes17c1,102$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189619.8%6 W · 55 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes2c1,091$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0543017%73 W · 357 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26db…7abcbacked Yes39c1,031$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006119.7%12 W · 49 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e32…f587backed No66c1,024$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed Yes20c1,023$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.524617.4%8 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes18c1,000$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.134714.7%51 W · 296 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.58924.7%22 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes10c999$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.98031.3%25 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes7c992.71$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.783267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecf…a067backed Yes14c952.97$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.161526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No73c880.7$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.448924.7%22 W · 67 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes21c880.59$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.2822119.9%44 W · 177 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes21c836.09$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.741225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes17c808.12$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.851557.7%12 W · 143 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c764.67$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.72,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed No67c751.28$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.56524.6%16 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes24c749.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18048310.1%49 W · 434 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd4…325cbacked No78c720.62$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes47c694.93$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.7843126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c53…31a4backed Yes17c689.8$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.66277.4%2 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-64.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No76c689.68$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.811361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No76c670.6$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.71181.8%9 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick75cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x752a…282fbacked Yes13c652.83$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.261717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes18c625.68$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1111820.3%24 W · 94 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes34c617.91$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2104524.4%11 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-57.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe275…f1eebacked Yes41c610.27$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb4…3a48backed No76c589.03$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.971921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes18c584.05$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7115921.4%34 W · 125 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3371…adfabacked No74c561.79$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No64c541.41$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.3718531.4%58 W · 127 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c5…b378backed Yes28c528.53$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-54.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes27c510.16$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.591816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-69.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b22…1d59backed No75c506.4$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0570…f927backed Yes16c500$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.35326.4%14 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e00…ea54backed Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes14c484.8$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.328211%31 W · 251 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Yes16c460.22$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.041816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-67.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes17c456.08$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.031347.5%10 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes34c455.6$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.172825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes19c450$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.471,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes8c440$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8334017.1%58 W · 282 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4552…0333backed Yes11c439.83$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe09a…d020backed Yes18c433.12$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.383030%9 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x515a…269abacked Yes15c424.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes10c420.28$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0331242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…cf59backed Yes20c408.82$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.922540%10 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes21c400$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.96819.1%13 W · 55 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…1e99backed Yes22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes12c395.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1554122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes13c392.3$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5114715%22 W · 125 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+80.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes16c375$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6042110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c373.02$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3651845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x413f…1747backed No76c365$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes18c357$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2612015%18 W · 102 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed Yes13c339.46$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.511526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeae8…479fbacked Yes38c335.02$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.479217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes21c332.2$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9720717.4%36 W · 171 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No70c327.17$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6114530.3%44 W · 101 L-12.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes26c325.02$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.367045.7%32 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf87c…55b9backed Yes37c324.72$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.744022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.