Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3bbc563eede54e1b2fcb690f2ba2ff89179ed736354e40a47f535c4b0e5e150
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $480,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $363,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2be3…688fbacked Yes | 29c | 23,047$6,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,735.76 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 25c | 17,697$4,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,336.75 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1c…ca14backed Yes | 0c | 16,130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…b42abacked Yes | 8c | 12,297$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.37 | 85 | 8.2%7 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 14c | 9,084$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 18c | 9,009$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.51 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 25c | 8,346$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.55 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 17c | 8,209$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.5 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 22c | 7,185$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.31 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 18c | 5,556$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.29 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 12c | 5,546$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.26 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 24c | 5,457$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.05 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…dd27backed Yes | 16c | 5,336$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 13c | 5,318$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.95 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 18c | 5,310$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.95 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 4,415$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.23 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 21c | 4,361$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.79 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 24c | 3,963$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.6 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 16c | 3,745$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.69 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b6…0d6dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,044$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.38 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 2,853$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.41 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed Yes | 13c | 2,618$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 17c | 2,531$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.1 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5069backed Yes | 29c | 2,478$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…20e1backed Yes | 48c | 2,099$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.3 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 11c | 1,995$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…df18backed Yes | 31c | 1,981$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.77 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 26c | 1,964$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.3 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 20c | 1,899$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.7 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 75c | 1,845$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.03 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 12c | 1,778$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.28 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 18c | 1,692$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.09 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 22c | 1,656$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.04 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,430$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 21c | 1,405$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.23 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 70c | 1,368$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.99 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 11c | 1,302$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.97 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 17c | 1,102$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 2c | 1,091$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26db…7abcbacked Yes | 39c | 1,031$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f587backed No | 66c | 1,024$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 20c | 1,023$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.52 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.1 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…3127backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 10c | 999$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 7c | 992.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…a067backed Yes | 14c | 952.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 73c | 880.7$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.44 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 21c | 880.59$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.28 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 21c | 836.09$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 17c | 808.12$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.85 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 764.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed No | 67c | 751.28$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.5 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 24c | 749.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked No | 78c | 720.62$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 47c | 694.93$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.78 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…31a4backed Yes | 17c | 689.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 76c | 689.68$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 76c | 670.6$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752a…282fbacked Yes | 13c | 652.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 18c | 625.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.11 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…f21ebacked Yes | 34c | 617.91$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…f1eebacked Yes | 41c | 610.27$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…3a48backed No | 76c | 589.03$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.97 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 18c | 584.05$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…adfabacked No | 74c | 561.79$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 541.41$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.37 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 28c | 528.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…32e7backed Yes | 27c | 510.16$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.59 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…1d59backed No | 75c | 506.4$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 16c | 500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…ea54backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 14c | 484.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Yes | 16c | 460.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 17c | 456.08$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes | 34c | 455.6$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 19c | 450$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 440$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed Yes | 11c | 439.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 18c | 433.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…269abacked Yes | 15c | 424.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 10c | 420.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…cf59backed Yes | 20c | 408.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…1e99backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 12c | 395.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 13c | 392.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 373.02$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…1747backed No | 76c | 365$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 18c | 357$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 13c | 339.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 38c | 335.02$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 21c | 332.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 70c | 327.17$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 26c | 325.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…55b9backed Yes | 37c | 324.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.