Champions League · resolved market
Will a club from South America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc189166b7f88195094854290d518f0f8e08692c2bc300a8af44d4bcc0a14bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 9,493$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.41 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,750$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 5c | 3,613$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.32 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 4c | 3,427$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,204$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.84 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b20…75d3backed Yes | 4c | 3,054$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,325$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.06 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…461cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,174$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 10c | 1,676$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…d646backed Yes | 5c | 1,381$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 8c | 1,319$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 4c | 1,254$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fc9fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,194$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…6c81backed Yes | 9c | 809.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…bf23backed Yes | 7c | 699.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 11c | 621.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…4b19backed Yes | 5c | 602.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 7c | 400.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +447.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 5c | 366$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 320.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 7c | 302$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…487cbacked Yes | 5c | 301.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…bdecbacked Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 9c | 285.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0671…eee4backed Yes | 8c | 256.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 21c | 232.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…691abacked Yes | 9c | 230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…3047backed Yes | 7c | 183.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked Yes | 11c | 175.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 8c | 157.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 8c | 142.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a club from South America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will a club from Asia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from Europe win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
- Will a club from North America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.