Champions League · resolved market
Will a club from Asia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4c52c20bed8ee65785c00f0a43be7ff1b8dd8a5b7613d4c8d13bf116cbeb47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcce…3e55backed Yes | 1c | 24,254$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +381.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…8b01backed Yes | 2c | 16,161$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 6c | 15,332$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,194$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 4c | 2,413$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,768$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 5c | 1,461$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…6c81backed Yes | 5c | 929.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 5c | 759$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…ead4backed Yes | 6c | 670$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 6c | 505.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…4b19backed Yes | 5c | 392.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 6c | 340.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked Yes | 5c | 339$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -72%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 5c | 218$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a club from Asia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will a club from Europe win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
- Will a club from North America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from South America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.