Champions League · resolved market
Will a club from Europe win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc76d76861111506a40749c3dea24250877ff2281ebca74c053d2564238585eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,591$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…692abacked No | 14c | 2,081$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -72%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 15c | 2,010$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.63 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 6c | 1,468$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 11c | 1,065$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 11c | 581.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 10c | 489.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 17c | 329.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 12c | 308.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…bdecbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a0…96c7backed No | 16c | 190.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…3a64backed No | 16c | 162$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked No | 8c | 149.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 134.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 11c | 129.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 80c | 119.83$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…ff6cbacked No | 16c | 95.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 14c | 90.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked No | 13c | 83.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…01d3backed Yes | 66c | 40.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147a…cc62backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a club from Europe win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will a club from Asia win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from North America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will a club from South America win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.