UFC · resolved market
UFC 318: Spann vs. Brzeski
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b9a9f98931dcb8d0648a0ee9c1b9ae72510134537d732bf5553536ce27d9237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spann of Spann , Brzeski
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5edb…6ff1backed Spann | 70c | 191,761$133,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,089.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Brzeski | 30c | 116,562$34,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,818.6 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Brzeski | 32c | 72,346$23,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,010.8 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Spann | 68c | 20,155$13,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,454.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Brzeski | 30c | 17,500$5,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,250 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Brzeski | 32c | 15,423$4,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,935.47 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Spann | 68c | 10,000$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Spann | 67c | 8,010$5,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,613.39 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Spann | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.86 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…45eebacked Spann | 71c | 2,146$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.31 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Brzeski | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.99 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Spann | 71c | 1,835$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.51 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Brzeski | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Brzeski | 31c | 967$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.77 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Brzeski | 32c | 866.22$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.53 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Spann | 67c | 716.58$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.47 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Spann | 68c | 591.65$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.65 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Brzeski | 31c | 500.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.14 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Spann | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Brzeski | 33c | 499.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Spann | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Spann | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Spann | 71c | 354.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Brzeski | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Brzeski | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Spann | 70c | 318.89$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Brzeski | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Spann | 66c | 295$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Brzeski | 34c | 295$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…0321backed Brzeski | 31c | 287.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Spann | 71c | 261$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…97b2backed Spann | 69c | 250$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Spann | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Spann | 68c | 157.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Spann | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Spann | 69c | 130.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Brzeski | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Brzeski | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Brzeski | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Spann | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Brzeski | 30c | 89.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Spann | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…2bb8backed Brzeski | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Brzeski | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…9b19backed Spann | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Brzeski | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6949…a179backed Brzeski | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Spann | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Spann | 68c | 51.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…3047backed Spann | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Spann | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Brzeski | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Brzeski | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…a2e1backed Spann | 69c | 46.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Brzeski | 31c | 45.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked Brzeski | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Spann | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Brzeski | 35c | 35.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Brzeski | 31c | 32.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Brzeski | 33c | 32.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…5148backed Spann | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeeb…e85ebacked Spann | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Spann | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Spann | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…a076backed Spann | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Spann | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Spann | 64c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 318: Spann vs. Brzeskithis page
- UFC 318: Costa vs. KopylovCosta won
- UFC 318: Crute vs. PrachnioCrute won
- UFC 318: Ferreira vs. McVeyFerreira won
- UFC 318: Fugitt vs. DulatovDulatov won
- UFC 318: Gautier vs. ValentinGautier won
- UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez Rodriguez won
- UFC 318: Holloway vs. PoirierHolloway won
- UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull Pitbull won
- UFC 318: Johnson vs. ZellhuberJohnson won
- UFC 318: Judice vs. CaliariJudice won
- UFC 318: Phillips vs. OliveiraOliveira won
- UFC 318: Prado vs. VeretennikovVeretennikov won
- UFC 318: Vettori vs. Allen Allen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.