UFC · resolved market
UFC 318: Gautier vs. Valentin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0eda288c290bd1ada34bc01c806560ae86036f328dd5b4527a7e05148420faa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gautier of Gautier , Valentin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Valentin | 19c | 16,358$3,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,047.08 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…fdb2backed Valentin | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Valentin | 17c | 4,105$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.85 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Valentin | 20c | 2,456$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.2 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Gautier | 80c | 2,088$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.4 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Gautier | 80c | 2,016$1,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Valentin | 19c | 2,011$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Valentin | 19c | 1,931$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.43 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Valentin | 20c | 1,646$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Valentin | 20c | 1,103$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.65 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Valentin | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Valentin | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Valentin | 19c | 903.38$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…0321backed Gautier | 78c | 895.96$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Valentin | 18c | 799.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Valentin | 20c | 762.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.6 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Gautier | 80c | 749.5$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.9 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Valentin | 19c | 696.23$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Valentin | 21c | 651$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Valentin | 18c | 555$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Valentin | 19c | 516$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Valentin | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…4660backed Valentin | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +79%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…eb68backed Valentin | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…85a4backed Valentin | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Valentin | 20c | 400$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Valentin | 17c | 399.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Valentin | 20c | 315$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Valentin | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Gautier | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Valentin | 19c | 278.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Valentin | 20c | 276.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Valentin | 17c | 273$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…b4e7backed Valentin | 21c | 233.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Valentin | 18c | 217.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Valentin | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Valentin | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Valentin | 18c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Valentin | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Valentin | 19c | 129$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Valentin | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…2bb8backed Valentin | 22c | 114.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Valentin | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Valentin | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Valentin | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Gautier | 80c | 91.25$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…f095backed Valentin | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Gautier | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Valentin | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Valentin | 19c | 70.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Valentin | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Valentin | 22c | 68.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…b82cbacked Valentin | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Valentin | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Gautier | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…5148backed Gautier | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Gautier | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Gautier | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…ea5dbacked Gautier | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…a076backed Gautier | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 318: Gautier vs. Valentinthis page
- UFC 318: Costa vs. KopylovCosta won
- UFC 318: Crute vs. PrachnioCrute won
- UFC 318: Ferreira vs. McVeyFerreira won
- UFC 318: Fugitt vs. DulatovDulatov won
- UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez Rodriguez won
- UFC 318: Holloway vs. PoirierHolloway won
- UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull Pitbull won
- UFC 318: Johnson vs. ZellhuberJohnson won
- UFC 318: Judice vs. CaliariJudice won
- UFC 318: Phillips vs. OliveiraOliveira won
- UFC 318: Prado vs. VeretennikovVeretennikov won
- UFC 318: Spann vs. BrzeskiSpann won
- UFC 318: Vettori vs. Allen Allen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.