UFC · resolved market
UFC 318: Fugitt vs. Dulatov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c81d66785ecd25a3986105af03ca5d526f21848f223194f7ead814ce2c2f58f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dulatov of Fugitt, Dulatov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5edb…6ff1backed Fugitt | 15c | 52,488$8,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,077.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…fdb2backed Fugitt | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Fugitt | 16c | 10,042$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Fugitt | 7c | 4,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Fugitt | 15c | 3,746$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Fugitt | 16c | 3,006$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.52 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Fugitt | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Fugitt | 17c | 1,971$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Fugitt | 16c | 1,559$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.42 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Fugitt | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Fugitt | 15c | 999.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Fugitt | 14c | 821.05$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Fugitt | 17c | 821$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.16 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Fugitt | 14c | 763.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Fugitt | 15c | 750$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Fugitt | 11c | 714.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Fugitt | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Fugitt | 3c | 625$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Fugitt | 15c | 579$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Fugitt | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…ed60backed Fugitt | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd684…1a34backed Fugitt | 16c | 415$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Fugitt | 15c | 340$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Fugitt | 15c | 303.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Fugitt | 14c | 300.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Fugitt | 14c | 299.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Fugitt | 15c | 280.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…85a4backed Fugitt | 16c | 220.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Fugitt | 16c | 209$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Fugitt | 15c | 208.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Fugitt | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Fugitt | 15c | 198.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Fugitt | 15c | 195$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fugitt | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…2bb8backed Fugitt | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8555backed Fugitt | 16c | 142.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Fugitt | 15c | 132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fugitt | 15c | 131$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…f202backed Fugitt | 16c | 128.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Fugitt | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Fugitt | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Fugitt | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Fugitt | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 318: Fugitt vs. Dulatovthis page
- UFC 318: Costa vs. KopylovCosta won
- UFC 318: Crute vs. PrachnioCrute won
- UFC 318: Ferreira vs. McVeyFerreira won
- UFC 318: Gautier vs. ValentinGautier won
- UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez Rodriguez won
- UFC 318: Holloway vs. PoirierHolloway won
- UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull Pitbull won
- UFC 318: Johnson vs. ZellhuberJohnson won
- UFC 318: Judice vs. CaliariJudice won
- UFC 318: Phillips vs. OliveiraOliveira won
- UFC 318: Prado vs. VeretennikovVeretennikov won
- UFC 318: Spann vs. BrzeskiSpann won
- UFC 318: Vettori vs. Allen Allen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.