UFC · resolved market
UFC 318: Judice vs. Caliari
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x120c0ec144d875538931156442866166a50d3e72b172fb39201cc30db2d18546
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Judice of Judice , Caliari
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65e4…a3bdbacked Caliari | 24c | 24,909$5,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,878.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Judice | 77c | 16,650$12,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,795.25 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Caliari | 20c | 5,158$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.43 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Judice | 76c | 4,005$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Judice | 79c | 4,000$3,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.5 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Judice | 77c | 3,762$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.91 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Judice | 77c | 3,116$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.75 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…0321backed Caliari | 22c | 2,587$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Judice | 79c | 2,153$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.8 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Caliari | 25c | 2,068$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.82 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…ed60backed Caliari | 26c | 2,000$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Caliari | 24c | 1,841$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.38 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Judice | 76c | 1,796$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.82 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Caliari | 16c | 1,718$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.29 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Caliari | 1c | 1,585$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…45eebacked Judice | 78c | 1,228$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.18 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc8…bf2bbacked Judice | 77c | 1,165$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Judice | 76c | 1,125$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Judice | 75c | 1,120$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Caliari | 24c | 999.98$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Caliari | 12c | 931$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.07 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Judice | 75c | 670.28$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 357 | 64.7%231 W · 126 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Caliari | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Caliari | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed Caliari | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Caliari | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Judice | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Judice | 74c | 500$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Caliari | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Caliari | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…4660backed Caliari | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +79%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Caliari | 13c | 414$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Caliari | 4c | 359$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Caliari | 26c | 334.91$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Caliari | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Caliari | 24c | 297$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Caliari | 24c | 296.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Judice | 75c | 290$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Caliari | 23c | 268.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Judice | 77c | 258.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Caliari | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Caliari | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Caliari | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Caliari | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Judice | 73c | 191.54$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Caliari | 21c | 184$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Judice | 76c | 161$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Judice | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Judice | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Judice | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…494bbacked Caliari | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Judice | 75c | 110.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…2bb8backed Caliari | 23c | 107.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Caliari | 23c | 103$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Judice | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Caliari | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Caliari | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Caliari | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Caliari | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Judice | 70c | 74.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Caliari | 25c | 64.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6054…d55ebacked Caliari | 24c | 63.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…0d06backed Caliari | 22c | 58.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Judice | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Caliari | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Caliari | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…5148backed Judice | 77c | 35.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…a076backed Judice | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 318: Judice vs. Caliarithis page
- UFC 318: Costa vs. KopylovCosta won
- UFC 318: Crute vs. PrachnioCrute won
- UFC 318: Ferreira vs. McVeyFerreira won
- UFC 318: Fugitt vs. DulatovDulatov won
- UFC 318: Gautier vs. ValentinGautier won
- UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez Rodriguez won
- UFC 318: Holloway vs. PoirierHolloway won
- UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull Pitbull won
- UFC 318: Johnson vs. ZellhuberJohnson won
- UFC 318: Phillips vs. OliveiraOliveira won
- UFC 318: Prado vs. VeretennikovVeretennikov won
- UFC 318: Spann vs. BrzeskiSpann won
- UFC 318: Vettori vs. Allen Allen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.