UFC · resolved market
UFC 318: Ferreira vs. McVey
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x915007dd714c026a5ff7d424b9c3831dc90996f8fdf8944106b4d55306ef34a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ferreiraof Ferreira, McVey
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1de3…0321backed McVey | 20c | 26,806$5,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,476.57 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…6ff1backed McVey | 22c | 25,858$5,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,637.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ferreira | 79c | 18,000$14,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Ferreira | 79c | 15,738$12,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,327.24 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Ferreira | 78c | 10,555$8,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.1 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Ferreira | 80c | 6,014$4,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.5 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Ferreira | 80c | 5,242$4,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.4 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…cd1cbacked McVey | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed McVey | 20c | 3,091$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.24 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…45eebacked Ferreira | 79c | 1,539$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.19 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…eb68backed McVey | 20c | 1,007$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ferreira | 80c | 1,005$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ferreira | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Ferreira | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…ed60backed McVey | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Ferreira | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.25 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed McVey | 16c | 899.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked McVey | 21c | 777.9$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ferreira | 79c | 762.56$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.58 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed McVey | 20c | 726$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked McVey | 2c | 619$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed McVey | 23c | 611$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.45 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed McVey | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed McVey | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed McVey | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Ferreira | 77c | 445$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed McVey | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Ferreira | 79c | 387$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Ferreira | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Ferreira | 79c | 292$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Ferreira | 79c | 288$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ferreira | 74c | 269.19$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Ferreira | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed McVey | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked McVey | 16c | 249.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked McVey | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Ferreira | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Ferreira | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed McVey | 19c | 187.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked McVey | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed McVey | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed McVey | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed McVey | 19c | 136.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed McVey | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079e…2bb8backed McVey | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed McVey | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Ferreira | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Ferreira | 79c | 125.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Ferreira | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Ferreira | 77c | 120.35$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed McVey | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked McVey | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked McVey | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked McVey | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Ferreira | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed McVey | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed McVey | 21c | 78.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…9b19backed Ferreira | 79c | 66.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked McVey | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Ferreira | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…b82cbacked McVey | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 318: Ferreira vs. McVeythis page
- UFC 318: Costa vs. KopylovCosta won
- UFC 318: Crute vs. PrachnioCrute won
- UFC 318: Fugitt vs. DulatovDulatov won
- UFC 318: Gautier vs. ValentinGautier won
- UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez Rodriguez won
- UFC 318: Holloway vs. PoirierHolloway won
- UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull Pitbull won
- UFC 318: Johnson vs. ZellhuberJohnson won
- UFC 318: Judice vs. CaliariJudice won
- UFC 318: Phillips vs. OliveiraOliveira won
- UFC 318: Prado vs. VeretennikovVeretennikov won
- UFC 318: Spann vs. BrzeskiSpann won
- UFC 318: Vettori vs. Allen Allen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.