UFC · resolved market
UFC 318: Crute vs. Prachnio
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc68d0bc26a33e90a1f4652ede8af50d30965c72d842ba8cf86268f99122594cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Crute of Crute , Prachnio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5024…fdb2backed Prachnio | 0c | 47,191$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Crute | 76c | 7,242$5,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.56 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Prachnio | 22c | 4,742$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.23 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Prachnio | 21c | 4,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…6eaebacked Crute | 78c | 3,600$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.68 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Crute | 78c | 3,205$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.13 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Crute | 77c | 2,804$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.98 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Prachnio | 28c | 2,050$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.89 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Prachnio | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d6…d716backed Crute | 75c | 1,864$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.72 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Prachnio | 24c | 1,524$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.76 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Crute | 79c | 1,096$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.05 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Prachnio | 21c | 1,086$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.02 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Crute | 79c | 1,079$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.48 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Prachnio | 25c | 1,027$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.67 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Crute | 72c | 1,004$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.02 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Prachnio | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Prachnio | 25c | 999.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Prachnio | 24c | 830$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Prachnio | 24c | 768.75$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Prachnio | 2c | 740$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Prachnio | 12c | 685.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Crute | 76c | 659.05$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.17 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Crute | 74c | 627.22$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.08 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Prachnio | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…4660backed Prachnio | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +79%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Prachnio | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Prachnio | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Prachnio | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Crute | 77c | 450$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Prachnio | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Prachnio | 20c | 400$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Prachnio | 22c | 382.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Crute | 75c | 340$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Prachnio | 27c | 329.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Crute | 76c | 320$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Prachnio | 24c | 285$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Prachnio | 23c | 278.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Crute | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Prachnio | 23c | 258.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Prachnio | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Prachnio | 21c | 207.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Prachnio | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Crute | 78c | 178$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Prachnio | 24c | 164$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…9a24backed Crute | 74c | 155.68$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Crute | 77c | 131$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Crute | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Prachnio | 24c | 127.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Prachnio | 23c | 115$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Prachnio | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Prachnio | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Prachnio | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Prachnio | 23c | 99.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Crute | 71c | 97.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Crute | 72c | 92.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Crute | 77c | 87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Prachnio | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6949…a179backed Prachnio | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Prachnio | 24c | 67.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…67c3backed Crute | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…9b19backed Prachnio | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…97b2backed Prachnio | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Prachnio | 26c | 47.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Prachnio | 28c | 43.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Crute | 77c | 33.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Crute | 76c | 32.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77e2…5148backed Crute | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…3d90backed Crute | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Crute | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Crute | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc90…a076backed Crute | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8035…c57fbacked Crute | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Crute | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…47c6backed Crute | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 318: Crute vs. Prachniothis page
- UFC 318: Costa vs. KopylovCosta won
- UFC 318: Ferreira vs. McVeyFerreira won
- UFC 318: Fugitt vs. DulatovDulatov won
- UFC 318: Gautier vs. ValentinGautier won
- UFC 318: Holland vs. Rodriguez Rodriguez won
- UFC 318: Holloway vs. PoirierHolloway won
- UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull Pitbull won
- UFC 318: Johnson vs. ZellhuberJohnson won
- UFC 318: Judice vs. CaliariJudice won
- UFC 318: Phillips vs. OliveiraOliveira won
- UFC 318: Prado vs. VeretennikovVeretennikov won
- UFC 318: Spann vs. BrzeskiSpann won
- UFC 318: Vettori vs. Allen Allen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.