Poker · resolved market
Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3715ee1a84aa476342ac40db1c3144a093e9e1b2a5d50825ccc92e99e34785bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $270,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa696…b081backed Yes | 0c | 103,462$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 4c | 49,720$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 0c | 20,158$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Yes | 7c | 18,941$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 16,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…ca07backed Yes | 15c | 13,453$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…613ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,992$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe440…dbbcbacked Yes | 14c | 2,159$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,515$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb5…ed05backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…74dabacked Yes | 13c | 1,199$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,016$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…4faebacked Yes | 12c | 805.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 757.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 13c | 730.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 9c | 623$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…9282backed Yes | 12c | 300.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1f…62f3backed Yes | 12c | 265.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02d…f8cfbacked Yes | 12c | 264.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…b5dbbacked Yes | 10c | 205.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…0155backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 7c | 195$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…e8dbbacked Yes | 12c | 178.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…a19bbacked Yes | 15c | 168.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Yes | 10c | 109.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc65…a6eebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?this page
- Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Daehyung Lee win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Jarod Minghini win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.