TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Poker · resolved market

Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$391,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$407,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,468 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Poker
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes22c137,122$29,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,133.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+357.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked No75c26,369$19,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,884.2940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No18c20,000$3,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,587.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No77c15,546$11,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,971.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x140a…c075backed Yes78c13,600$10,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.58540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes18c10,001$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,170.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+173.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f55…ce1bbacked No17c10,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No56c9,090$5,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,081.74911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-83.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No22c9,056$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,991.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No54c8,800$4,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,775.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x093d…766fbacked Yes20c5,250$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,210.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+68.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbed…c1debacked No80c5,128$4,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,089.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8082…b212backed Yes20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,999.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No18c4,012$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa696…b081backed No29c4,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed No79c3,797$2,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,990.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a63…e393backed Yes21c3,606$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,841.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+371.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes47c3,578$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes66c3,190$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.83425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes21c3,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,369.99650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked No35c2,777$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes58c2,567$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed No47c2,563$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb5…ed05backed No80c2,500$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.7140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No35c2,500$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87570%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No80c2,500$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9980%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed No76c2,322$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,764.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8b…1ea1backed No14c2,250$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed No42c2,241$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.6460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6b…bfacbacked No77c2,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No36c1,564$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.9812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-81.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28e9…f89dbacked No79c1,500$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3ce…f646backed Yes21c1,500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1851100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcffc…2a55backed Yes64c1,500$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No21c1,457$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f64…32b3backed Yes77c1,328$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed No77c1,261$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes34c1,211$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f55…74dabacked Yes22c1,140$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+127.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1b…c86fbacked Yes20c1,011$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+388.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d6a…c011backed Yes20c1,003$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.13425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed No51c999.99$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbfd…1be9backed Yes22c993.95$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed No40c972.15$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No42c970$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No30c817.79$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.18650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2711…cd8bbacked No16c772.38$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x977b…10d9backed Yes21c690.48$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d5…a68cbacked No17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes21c585.71$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef5…a454backed Yes21c550$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c534.33$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1100%0 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc37…1c7bbacked No16c522$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8b…152bbacked Yes20c510.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+410.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x944b…c0c8backed No14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked No77c498.62$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.28425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb4…7cfabacked Yes21c476.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…2766backed Yes19c474.21$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed Yes71c444.05$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No78c420.04$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.0260%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes53c400$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1881435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed No14c399.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb192…f022backed Yes41c395.46$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7508…1886backed Yes19c360$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+156.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed No22c339.67$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes16c310$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes21c301.52$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.09616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16a…3c93backed No16c294$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa677…7d76backed Yes48c283.27$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.94520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8be4…58d9backed No16c273.13$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc018…018abacked Yes21c250$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2875…e7e9backed Yes20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No26c235.6$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf077…0c9dbacked No17c235.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd2…ec0dbacked No17c235.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed Yes78c228.28$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No61c215.14$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+85.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb62a…dffcbacked Yes20c195$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+150.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa689…4cf5backed Yes21c183.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+140.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b76…0fe3backed No79c179.33$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27d6…21f7backed Yes22c178.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+123.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked No32c176.11$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes49c167.99$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa353…55c1backed No72c167.27$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1f…62f3backed No20c164.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec4…0638backed No39c155.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ec…9282backed Yes21c150$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed No47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca04…6e22backed No16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef9…3b47backed No18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945f…1293backed No17c105.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751a…9ea1backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee2e…2021backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick18cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked No77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-78.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…3dabbacked No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e18…f9ffbacked No78c99.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.