Poker · resolved market
Will Jarod Minghini win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x880d15ee6ede16d9f1efe2591157aa4d894085802796740b530c509d4da89ff8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,441$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…13c2backed Yes | 5c | 6,381$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Yes | 4c | 4,877$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 3c | 4,304$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe440…dbbcbacked Yes | 5c | 3,804$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,652$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,159$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…e717backed Yes | 4c | 1,351$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 4c | 1,005$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…16d4backed Yes | 4c | 669.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…5129backed Yes | 5c | 668.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2875…e7e9backed Yes | 4c | 560$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…cac9backed Yes | 4c | 353.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Yes | 4c | 305.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jarod Minghini win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?this page
- Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Daehyung Lee win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.