Poker · resolved market
Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81ea46365403f183e0bc8b631fb3951a989e65ae85d6f6c0ea8afc2cea0cd408
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $257,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 2c | 58,657$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 8c | 30,000$2,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,495 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…88e9backed Yes | 4c | 11,500$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…8e3dbacked Yes | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 6c | 7,837$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,546$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…ec77backed Yes | 4c | 7,503$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 16c | 7,262$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Yes | 4c | 3,801$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,593$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 12c | 2,440$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 12c | 2,400$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…e9cbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 17c | 1,690$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,502$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 17c | 1,417$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,009$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 18c | 930.93$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6a…c011backed Yes | 17c | 880.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…3378backed Yes | 3c | 750$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa696…b081backed Yes | 14c | 722.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…c38abacked Yes | 16c | 650$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 8c | 645$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97d…199dbacked Yes | 3c | 611$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 17c | 596$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc292…272abacked Yes | 17c | 580.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 4c | 540.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 17c | 500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 17c | 494.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 12c | 490.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 454.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…7c89backed Yes | 4c | 385.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…c075backed Yes | 15c | 363.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 22c | 351.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…dae7backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc791…e8e0backed Yes | 17c | 301.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39b…4a3cbacked Yes | 14c | 275$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 19c | 270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…608ebacked Yes | 19c | 260$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Yes | 19c | 259.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cae…1537backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 80c | 192$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 10c | 171$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1f…62f3backed Yes | 16c | 160.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 18c | 158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…f935backed No | 78c | 149.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…01f9backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…7d76backed Yes | 11c | 118.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…21f7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…9282backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a10…556cbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…c379backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?this page
- Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Daehyung Lee win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Jarod Minghini win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.