Poker · resolved market
Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fed109beefcab5f5f4dbfafcf912d024b9036214e70511fbbf2df53efe3db96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 2c | 8,474$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb5…ed05backed Yes | 9c | 7,164$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,666$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 8c | 3,780$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…b212backed Yes | 7c | 3,304$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x093d…766fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…4faebacked Yes | 9c | 1,258$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…ceb7backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbed…c1debacked Yes | 10c | 1,082$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…ea5bbacked Yes | 11c | 669$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Yes | 8c | 470$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…7d76backed Yes | 3c | 454$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 8c | 343$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7508…1886backed Yes | 9c | 272.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +156.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 243.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 242.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 238.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…b5dbbacked Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…7c89backed Yes | 9c | 122.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…1faebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?this page
- Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Daehyung Lee win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Jarod Minghini win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.