Poker · resolved market
Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43c314bc5d1efd09d3e97332631dad6388bf5ce7f9b63f205947ac3b5e694ed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 2c | 68,173$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 7c | 22,265$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 3c | 20,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…c075backed Yes | 11c | 13,781$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 12,315$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Yes | 7c | 5,334$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…97b2backed Yes | 2c | 3,095$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,272$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 13c | 2,214$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…e8dbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,034$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 2c | 1,721$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 6c | 1,663$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…c38abacked Yes | 13c | 1,200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6a…c011backed Yes | 14c | 1,087$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…3378backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f81…fdffbacked Yes | 10c | 947.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 5c | 835.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa696…b081backed Yes | 5c | 832.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…c5c1backed Yes | 3c | 775.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…4faebacked Yes | 14c | 770.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 734.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 630.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 9c | 590.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 3c | 588.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1f…62f3backed Yes | 13c | 575.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 13c | 571.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Yes | 12c | 550.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 6c | 444.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…10d9backed Yes | 14c | 356.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…a14ebacked Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed Yes | 4c | 303$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 13c | 197.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…4cf5backed Yes | 14c | 184$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…01f9backed Yes | 14c | 135.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2e…2021backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 18cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2875…e7e9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…7d76backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…cac9backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?this page
- Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Daehyung Lee win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Jarod Minghini win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?No won
- Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.