TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe7db…3dab

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: F1, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category F1 at 52 out of 100; worst World Politics at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Liberal Party win between 38% and 41% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$59
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+31.1%+$10.81
Will the Green Party win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will the Green Party win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.3
Will the Conservative Party win 7+ seats in Atlantic Canada?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$10.06
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$279.35
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$198
Will the Liberals win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$359Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+60.3%+$216.29
Will the Green Party win a seat in British Columbia ?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will Barbara Lee win the Oakland mayoral race?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.4
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$68
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend F1 Miami GP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US military action against Iran in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonbacked Disguised · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.