AI · resolved market
Intel x TSMC joint venture announced before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe43170930eab31f720913317025026fc97ef13124222b1e7d41f3302856b132e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf97…5923backed No | 38c | 28,124$10,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,436.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe072…125dbacked Yes | 62c | 28,124$17,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,436.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 61c | 2,763$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 10c | 2,279$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.18 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 33c | 2,083$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.63 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,146$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1070…0bf4backed No | 31c | 645.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 67c | 552$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.84 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 65c | 344.06$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.64 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 56c | 288.22$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.78 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 66c | 274.58$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.43 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…b357backed No | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 64c | 254.33$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.27 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 57c | 227.63$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…32d8backed No | 50c | 162.74$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 42c | 151.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62b…de3cbacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 69c | 139.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 67c | 139$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 136.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…3dabbacked Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Yes | 68c | 107.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…64ecbacked Yes | 63c | 104.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 63c | 103.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 55c | 100.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 90.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6019…8cb6backed No | 33c | 85.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 57c | 84.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 16c | 79.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 68c | 70.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked No | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…39aebacked No | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62b…3466backed No | 30c | 39.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…c908backed No | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 67c | 28.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301c…3660backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…2c3bbacked Yes | 70c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…dc3cbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…3d18backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.