TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump lower tariffs on EU in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$207,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$211,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa44c…c458backed No71c32,590$23,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,138.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe659…8cf8backed Yes29c32,590$9,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,138.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No20c14,528$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.36053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed No71c14,257$10,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,100.152035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x779a…6bc0backed Yes30c7,810$2,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,472.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+234.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No68c6,745$4,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,578.18450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes31c6,448$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,464.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes33c5,286$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,527.688640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No68c4,049$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.0799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes37c3,810$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.4617633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No66c3,650$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408.5337533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xffec…7a8bbacked No70c3,438$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,406.58757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No49c3,400$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.9869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes29c3,333$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,366.435240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6faf…6021backed No70c2,973$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.5840%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No67c2,014$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.97354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes34c1,993$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.731435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes24c1,857$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.4710834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb5c…903dbacked Yes31c1,613$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.91225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c4…2f6cbacked Yes33c1,500$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff91…6786backed No67c1,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No70c1,446$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.915646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No67c1,421$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.722065%13 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed Yes31c1,046$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.524231%13 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes33c1,005$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.456041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5138…3d13backed No7c980$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64b8…976cbacked Yes31c957.77$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes23c850$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.521935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0db7…c901backed No49c805.5$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.682850%14 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed No67c800$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.57051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed No65c780$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.83135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes34c779.41$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.412157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ab7…f1b9backed No67c746.27$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771a…aeb8backed Yes32c700$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+227.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c640.18$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.521,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No71c640$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.18058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4131…3cefbacked No76c600$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No66c599.99$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9913525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes31c499.99$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3458444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No73c498.85$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.2218745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No17c470$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.911120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No54c466.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.937740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes28c434.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.997045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes39c431.99$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.014257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed No68c400$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2724734%16 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No71c363.49$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2917850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No69c363.31$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.683253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No55c360$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.9522347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes32c315$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.21566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+46.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x65b5…2b77backed Yes32c307.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.78683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+102.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fd9…0145backed No69c300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed No67c300$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021942.1%8 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-41.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed No66c300$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1993444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b7…7843backed Yes34c293.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.71837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…f82ebacked No65c285.06$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.031338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef7d…5e3fbacked Yes31c275.81$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.31633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No17c268.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6311121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c251.84$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f57…7a66backed Yes26c250$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick20cpaid+164.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No67c250$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.51656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c240$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6244111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe16f…27c9backed No11c220$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes33c203.03$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.031060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No67c202.19$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.979546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes32c200$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.347639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed No65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302025%5 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No67c200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13410137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed Yes28c189.84$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.943161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x398e…3752backed No68c183.49$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick69cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef10…4c13backed No72c175$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8911…8a41backed Yes36c172.83$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.61540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0c…25dfbacked Yes31c165$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.851450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No7c155.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4530319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No24c152.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7131840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes33c150$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.683959%23 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+32.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfc5a…1ca2backed No67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d13…a018backed No66c144$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.042339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa659…1eaabacked No70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8c…256ebacked No70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick67cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d7…5762backed Yes29c140$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.42842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked No72c138.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd14f…d46dbacked No71c133.8$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c18…dc3cbacked No73c121.36$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.042429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked No69c120.64$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.123026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No72c120$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.47447.3%35 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed No64c120$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.27441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f30…c8dbbacked Yes34c117.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c116.53$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.531,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No77c113.32$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3614819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No48c105.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7611336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7112643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a38…f931backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8136…0bdfbacked No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick69cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xddcd…ccfebacked Yes36c98.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x921a…daedbacked Yes35c98.43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+111.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes29c95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.353154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7caf…19d2backed Yes32c93.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.751643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba3b…eea1backed Yes32c93.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.75633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…ced9backed No64c87.77$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-28.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.