Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump lower tariffs on EU in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc94d1d7d260e2d8f0e46e39f0a400aefc70414291e25f42cf349cd5ed50fd1f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa44c…c458backed No | 71c | 32,590$23,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,138.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…8cf8backed Yes | 29c | 32,590$9,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,138.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 20c | 14,528$2,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,835.3 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 71c | 14,257$10,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,100.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…6bc0backed Yes | 30c | 7,810$2,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,472.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 68c | 6,745$4,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,578.1 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 31c | 6,448$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,464.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 33c | 5,286$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,527.68 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 4,049$2,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,771.07 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 37c | 3,810$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.46 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 66c | 3,650$2,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408.53 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked No | 70c | 3,438$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,406.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 3,400$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.98 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 29c | 3,333$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,366.43 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…6021backed No | 70c | 2,973$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 67c | 2,014$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.9 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed Yes | 34c | 1,993$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 24c | 1,857$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.47 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5c…903dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…2f6cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…6786backed No | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 70c | 1,446$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.9 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 67c | 1,421$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.72 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 31c | 1,046$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.52 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 33c | 1,005$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.45 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…3d13backed No | 7c | 980$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b8…976cbacked Yes | 31c | 957.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 23c | 850$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.5 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed No | 49c | 805.5$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.68 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 67c | 800$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.5 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed No | 65c | 780$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.8 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes | 34c | 779.41$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.41 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…f1b9backed No | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…aeb8backed Yes | 32c | 700$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 640.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 71c | 640$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.1 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…3cefbacked No | 76c | 600$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 66c | 599.99$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.99 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 73c | 498.85$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.22 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 17c | 470$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 54c | 466.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 28c | 434.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.99 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 39c | 431.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.01 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 71c | 363.49$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.29 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 69c | 363.31$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.68 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 55c | 360$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.95 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes | 32c | 315$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…2b77backed Yes | 32c | 307.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…0145backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed No | 67c | 300$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed No | 66c | 300$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…7843backed Yes | 34c | 293.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 65c | 285.06$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…5e3fbacked Yes | 31c | 275.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 17c | 268.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 251.84$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.78 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f57…7a66backed Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 20cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked No | 67c | 250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 240$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…27c9backed No | 11c | 220$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes | 33c | 203.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 67c | 202.19$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 32c | 200$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.34 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 28c | 189.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.94 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 68c | 183.49$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…4c13backed No | 72c | 175$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…8a41backed Yes | 36c | 172.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…25dfbacked Yes | 31c | 165$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 7c | 155.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 24c | 152.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.68 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…1ca2backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed No | 66c | 144$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa659…1eaabacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…256ebacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked No | 71c | 133.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…dc3cbacked No | 73c | 121.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked No | 69c | 120.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f30…c8dbbacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 116.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 77c | 113.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 48c | 105.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…f931backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…0bdfbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…ccfebacked Yes | 36c | 98.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…daedbacked Yes | 35c | 98.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +111.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 29c | 95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…19d2backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3b…eea1backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…ced9backed No | 64c | 87.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.