TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Liberals win majority in Canadian election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,638,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,164,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,638,785 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 922 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd12f…820dbacked No48c291,368$140,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150,518.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes57c148,791$85,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,346.7948224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes36c130,342$46,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,987.39334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No44c108,761$48,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,674.065664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2ae…6374backed Yes33c102,569$33,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,796.591421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes3c88,379$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.953636.1%13 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes33c83,108$27,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,383.9825337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes47c77,464$36,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,191.2916744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes29c66,622$19,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,612.6110127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Yes64c64,612$41,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,269.022060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5248…aabbbacked Yes61c61,923$37,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,564.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5465…5133backed Yes57c61,052$34,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,799.3840%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a5e…7f28backed Yes58c60,577$35,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,324.652347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb9…29ebbacked No35c59,865$21,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,724.96425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes56c58,950$32,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,767.221428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes49c56,708$27,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,966.11742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes9c54,413$5,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,133.882240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5b…23cabacked Yes54c53,655$29,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,115.931060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No23c53,564$12,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,985.786439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes59c48,740$28,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,539.5411853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd13…2e4dbacked No45c46,405$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,404.83714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x662f…fa84backed No44c45,121$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,121.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c41,755$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.155132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes17c40,117$6,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,710.954524.4%11 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+103.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes40c39,337$15,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,829.296622.7%15 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed No48c39,174$18,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,200.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce2…774ebacked Yes60c39,114$23,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,468.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa176…4167backed No40c39,114$15,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,468.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb843…1b3fbacked Yes22c38,721$8,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,443.311145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+118.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c38,222$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,542.56883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes44c34,519$15,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,206.6426139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3dba…b4e3backed No44c32,079$14,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,964.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x457e…afd3backed Yes56c32,079$17,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,964.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe647…63d5backed Yes6c31,193$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes48c30,963$14,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,729.054055%22 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…6b40backed No41c30,722$12,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,125.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf2d…d280backed Yes59c30,722$18,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,125.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf09c…383dbacked No44c30,056$13,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,711.21526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39ff…5fbbbacked Yes67c29,953$19,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,997.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d3f…de34backed No40c29,437$11,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,536.671338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfac8…4916backed No41c29,421$12,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,358.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+117.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x738f…965fbacked Yes59c29,421$17,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,358.3920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dee…f618backed Yes68c28,582$19,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,300.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88d7…5762backed Yes4c28,109$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.621442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes42c26,500$11,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,109.991346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e38…1b55backed Yes47c25,151$11,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,727.211735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes51c24,688$12,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,655.0810233.3%34 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b8…f0cbbacked Yes58c24,643$14,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,381.761957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes59c24,057$14,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,192.685139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b7…9341backed No41c23,843$9,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,112.371225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e5f…8a51backed Yes54c23,330$12,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,667.571258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes22c22,359$4,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,827.536642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes39c22,297$8,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,599.24922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes47c22,222$10,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,444.342343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc3…f339backed Yes61c21,877$13,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,344.9740%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe659…8cf8backed No39c21,877$8,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,344.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+144.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes48c21,689$10,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,308.53944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes51c21,486$10,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,966.0212129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed Yes51c21,249$10,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,825.111442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a21…ac9cbacked Yes62c20,288$12,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,558.19922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.37per pick59cpaid-68.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1c4a…f5e6backed No36c18,633$6,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,973.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Yes58c18,209$10,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,537.432240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No44c17,765$7,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,935.258035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes15c17,740$2,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.576038.3%23 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes57c17,534$10,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,056.882441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Yes27c17,069$4,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,658.921643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+291.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x257d…bfc1backed No36c17,006$6,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,917.49475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+191%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes55c16,837$9,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,236.6543243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23c0…564cbacked Yes5c16,694$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.812722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid+34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked Yes55c15,460$8,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,480.621752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb0backed No35c15,236$5,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,882.321711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-67.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabc0…7717backed No47c15,213$7,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,061.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4727…aa86backed Yes63c15,000$9,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,449.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes20c14,441$2,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,932.931457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+26.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xced9…e1b0backed No35c14,407$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,407.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e2…5009backed Yes55c14,000$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,700580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes50c13,935$6,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,955.0611247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No37c13,093$4,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,264.926930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf55…22a8backed No41c13,000$5,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,732.77137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2e…e78bbacked Yes1c12,686$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c12,653$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.964121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd85c…4b42backed Yes60c12,511$7,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,567.41771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0fa…53cfbacked No36c12,496$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,016.1728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a3…7921backed Yes65c12,241$7,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,941.541471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb059…a79abacked No36c12,000$4,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,732.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+181.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…5ccebacked Yes61c11,817$7,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,185.22633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked No45c11,787$5,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,471.62045%9 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaec7…f646backed No64c11,775$7,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,231.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed No23c11,544$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,864.21616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21e4…4e1cbacked No40c11,513$4,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,911.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes26c11,506$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.217650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c11,333$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.74521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes45c11,184$5,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,054.0419623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes4c11,183$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.678529.4%25 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed Yes18c10,963$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.683221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid+165%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes60c10,859$6,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,514.5411428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9f…5b06backed No37c10,694$3,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,710.66219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-74.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88bd…3cd7backed No38c10,605$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,604.55728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes61c10,412$6,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,317.592650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes51c10,100$5,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1586633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.