Us Politics · resolved market
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fcfb9bf9287879a8f4b67ca9af614c819b73c299d63a0aa8d56d013e763005c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,742,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,881,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,742,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 599 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 19c | 80,203$15,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,175.24 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 32c | 79,568$25,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,082.41 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 23c | 59,860$13,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,938.1 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…6a76backed No | 76c | 41,044$31,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,686.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 9c | 39,084$3,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,452.31 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 20c | 29,845$5,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,958.28 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 59c | 29,449$17,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,197.12 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 79c | 29,307$23,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,290.83 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 21c | 26,938$5,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,525.34 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 8c | 26,517$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.98 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 45c | 25,754$11,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,646.72 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 75c | 25,543$19,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,421.55 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 75c | 23,000$17,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,800.01 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 33c | 22,241$7,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,328.33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 79c | 21,455$16,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,502.39 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 25c | 19,212$4,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,782.59 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 77c | 18,635$14,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,365.48 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked No | 77c | 18,037$13,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,185.51 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 70c | 17,662$12,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,328.8 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 31c | 16,862$5,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,182.72 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe563…96c1backed Yes | 5c | 16,522$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…2144backed No | 65c | 15,633$10,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,420.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 76c | 15,000$11,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,624.59 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 76c | 11,566$8,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,748.93 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 74c | 11,243$8,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,871.12 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 3c | 10,750$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.77 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 76c | 10,588$8,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,503.65 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 13c | 10,158$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.69 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed Yes | 13c | 10,146$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked No | 75c | 10,064$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.69 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9194…c7a0backed Yes | 26c | 9,730$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 10c | 9,332$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.96 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9afdbacked Yes | 31c | 9,310$2,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,890.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed No | 68c | 9,201$6,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,951.57 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 80c | 9,191$7,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.64 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…492abacked Yes | 1c | 9,068$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 16c | 8,021$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.4 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…20abbacked Yes | 12c | 7,809$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 21c | 7,791$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.64 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 79c | 7,550$5,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 18c | 7,506$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 30c | 7,215$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.5 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 25c | 6,460$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed Yes | 31c | 6,337$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.91 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 70c | 6,192$4,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.97 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 3c | 6,084$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 4c | 5,344$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.6 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,044$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 14c | 5,026$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb059…a79abacked Yes | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 78c | 4,938$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 78c | 4,911$3,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.73 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 20c | 4,862$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.42 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…1252backed No | 74c | 4,859$3,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…ea75backed Yes | 29c | 4,849$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 11c | 4,724$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.64 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes | 19c | 4,562$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.02 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 12c | 4,396$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.47 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked Yes | 20c | 4,362$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…d3f8backed No | 72c | 4,349$3,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.31 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,336$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed No | 72c | 4,318$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.62 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 68c | 4,135$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.36 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 69c | 4,000$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 75c | 3,933$2,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.77 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 74c | 3,888$2,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.88 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 19c | 3,708$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.16 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x959a…b1afbacked Yes | 18c | 3,696$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,510$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.4 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 32c | 3,254$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.64 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81e…b7e6backed Yes | 9c | 3,232$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8910…ae6ebacked Yes | 31c | 3,188$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,060$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.49 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0802…8cb0backed No | 70c | 3,012$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 33c | 3,000$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.78 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…d797backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 5c | 2,976$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.76 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…90f4backed Yes | 5c | 2,965$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed No | 69c | 2,902$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 47c | 2,790$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,681$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.7 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed No | 72c | 2,500$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…ce48backed Yes | 32c | 2,485$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 70c | 2,400$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.13 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 76c | 2,301$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.15 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 11c | 2,273$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…01b3backed Yes | 13c | 2,250$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed Yes | 9c | 2,222$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 11c | 2,127$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.26 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 26c | 2,100$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.09 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 21c | 2,100$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.95 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…aa86backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe144…8257backed Yes | 32c | 1,949$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 30c | 1,931$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.2 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 74c | 1,909$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.79 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,905$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.