World Politics · resolved market
Will the Green Party win a seat in British Columbia ?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdc9ffe68c6de840f2a1a96a5d731af6a636d92aee5179aaa31915ec29fea7be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $270,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf07…2313backed No | 49c | 35,858$17,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,570.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…c317backed Yes | 51c | 35,858$18,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,570.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…6be3backed Yes | 53c | 34,367$18,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,152.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd299…840fbacked No | 47c | 34,367$16,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,152.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebf…874dbacked Yes | 38c | 31,956$12,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,812.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…57b9backed No | 62c | 31,956$19,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,812.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…d78ebacked No | 53c | 23,631$12,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,524.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…5ea4backed Yes | 47c | 23,618$11,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,517.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…6dafbacked Yes | 56c | 1,270$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 57c | 882.43$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.86 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…5e5ebacked Yes | 54c | 295$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e23ebacked No | 44c | 225$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f6…c209backed No | 48c | 225$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…ccf3backed No | 49c | 225$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d6…488abacked No | 44c | 225$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…0824backed No | 44c | 220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 53c | 219.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e83…2cbebacked No | 44c | 215$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c3…84b0backed No | 50c | 215$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…bee0backed No | 46c | 205$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…61aabacked No | 44c | 190$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 44c | 177.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 33c | 153.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 42c | 147.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 48c | 137.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4782…e79ebacked No | 51c | 136.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff38…738dbacked No | 47c | 132.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 48c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…896bbacked Yes | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…7d41backed Yes | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…05cebacked No | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf758…ab6abacked No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed No | 50c | 116.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda86…8796backed No | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1eb…933cbacked No | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…361fbacked No | 48c | 92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa637…686dbacked No | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 50c | 72.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfae2…428fbacked Yes | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 53c | 65.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 50c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 30c | 63.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…b291backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 20c | 49.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 46c | 45.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 47c | 45.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…511dbacked No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…e835backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…3d96backed Yes | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…193abacked No | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…6b8ebacked Yes | 53c | 41.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 50c | 37.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…c983backed No | 46c | 36.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…61dbbacked Yes | 79c | 31.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…3384backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…87c1backed No | 51c | 29.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510d…a729backed No | 46c | 26.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 50c | 26.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3627…43f6backed Yes | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…b056backed Yes | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05fd…7976backed Yes | 57c | 25.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 24.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…6533backed Yes | 58c | 22.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 57c | 21.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…8f21backed Yes | 57c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…3dabbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…fe11backed Yes | 56c | 18.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.