World Politics · resolved market
Will Barbara Lee win the Oakland mayoral race?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd217d0546231a02b22cdae8f4582b07ee4000e1f9125edd6216909d148edee3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 0c | 13,381$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 15c | 5,942$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.94 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 5c | 4,927$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.6 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 31c | 3,947$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.12 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…6374backed Yes | 38c | 3,840$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,386.71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 76c | 3,291$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.14 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 16c | 2,349$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.05 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 68c | 2,202$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.22 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked No | 22c | 1,909$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.41 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 73c | 1,563$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.35 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 16c | 1,473$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.54 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 21c | 1,437$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.19 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 1,428$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.48 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 16c | 1,375$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.92 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,373$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.36 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 79c | 1,352$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.96 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 14c | 1,268$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c21…d2febacked Yes | 78c | 1,203$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.71 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 63c | 1,065$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.63 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6846backed No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…7f79backed Yes | 71c | 991.04$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.88 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 63c | 972.22$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.58 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b0…c712backed No | 21c | 945.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504b…ab82backed No | 18c | 620$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 45c | 551.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.77 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 31c | 385.24$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.83 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 44c | 379.32$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.36 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed No | 13c | 307$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 69c | 292.25$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 14c | 277.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 23c | 269.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 17c | 268.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…a790backed Yes | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 38c | 239.51$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.78 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 41c | 205$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 13c | 204.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5d…aefabacked Yes | 79c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b999backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 46c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8d…70febacked No | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 20c | 173.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked No | 56c | 172.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…fe70backed No | 15c | 165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 157.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…7ccfbacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 76c | 126.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecd…73fabacked Yes | 79c | 124.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 41c | 105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed No | 19c | 103.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 100.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 76c | 83.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 54c | 81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf91…d662backed Yes | 46c | 69.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 22c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc126…e3fabacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…1cd6backed No | 22c | 53.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…5701backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…a689backed Yes | 80c | 40.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a599backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 50c | 25.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…a6b2backed No | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda98…5119backed No | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…3dabbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…fa6bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Barbara Lee win the Oakland mayoral race?this page
- Will Loren Taylor win the Oakland mayoral race?No won
- Will another candidate win the Oakland mayoral race?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.