World Politics · resolved market
Will Loren Taylor win the Oakland mayoral race?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc5dea0283e59137a51eccf8813f76c0d2b8631385eb9da8f248da183cde807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 3c | 10,517$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.14 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…072bbacked Yes | 18c | 6,562$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…6374backed Yes | 17c | 5,605$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 19c | 3,646$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.28 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 15c | 3,444$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.27 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…c466backed Yes | 22c | 2,445$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,695$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.04 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,560$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…4816backed Yes | 29c | 1,528$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,373$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…62d2backed Yes | 39c | 1,345$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 70c | 1,326$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.61 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed Yes | 48c | 1,159$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.87 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 11c | 1,067$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 18c | 918.65$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.73 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 38c | 907.85$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.08 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 15c | 873.71$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.93 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe532…29dcbacked Yes | 27c | 841.67$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 15c | 839.01$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 19c | 776.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.46 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…db9fbacked Yes | 58c | 642.31$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9afdbacked Yes | 58c | 638.26$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 14c | 634$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 22c | 630$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 36c | 623.96$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.35 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507d…728dbacked Yes | 17c | 609.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 569.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 18c | 555$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 8c | 540$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…c102backed Yes | 30c | 377.44$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 43c | 335.41$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.32 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 31c | 311$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 20c | 307.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…00dfbacked Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 12c | 281$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 279.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…dfb0backed Yes | 27c | 252.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…f6a8backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 26c | 248.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5010…75dfbacked Yes | 38c | 242$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…7f79backed No | 45c | 223.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 220.4$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 57c | 213.81$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 27c | 206$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 55c | 174$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 16c | 161.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…c003backed Yes | 16c | 126.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 103.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 100.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…4275backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…e5ddbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde4…8773backed Yes | 30c | 93.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 38c | 91.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…771dbacked Yes | 56c | 83.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…8501backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 73c | 22.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Loren Taylor win the Oakland mayoral race?this page
- Will Barbara Lee win the Oakland mayoral race?Yes won
- Will another candidate win the Oakland mayoral race?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.