Us Politics · resolved market
Kilmar Abrego Garcia released from custody by next Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e293d50e74dcce3a05d43554dabce4ed1f0c2098f51fd021d435baeda57e086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,925$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…af66backed Yes | 1c | 1,679$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 33c | 549.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 31c | 538$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.41 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 68c | 433.81$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.82 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 5c | 379$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…e8c9backed No | 73c | 326.47$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 242.18$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 67c | 240$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 25c | 192.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 20c | 190.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 114.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0e…5aacbacked Yes | 31c | 103.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022c…7a01backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 29c | 70.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…bd80backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…3dabbacked Yes | 29c | 44.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d7…31bfbacked No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x603c…fbdfbacked No | 76c | 20.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f6…4f56backed No | 73c | 20.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.