World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party win 7+ seats in Atlantic Canada?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cd0f843d0e7019d1ca56cc868ac896e92efbf10d8dfc4c36df29a1d3d75e49e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $259,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $259,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec9…6be3backed No | 46c | 40,367$18,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,568.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…7cebbacked Yes | 54c | 40,367$21,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,568.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…d78ebacked No | 38c | 31,957$12,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,143.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe998…348abacked Yes | 62c | 31,957$19,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,143.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…b97abacked No | 40c | 29,788$11,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,915.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd781…b3e9backed Yes | 60c | 29,788$17,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,915.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 66c | 12,200$8,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,098.13 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.96 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 37c | 8,905$3,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,290.99 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 74c | 8,752$6,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.21 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 26c | 7,270$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.66 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 38c | 1,868$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.47 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 8c | 1,662$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 40c | 1,513$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked No | 33c | 1,428$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 1,268$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 26c | 1,023$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.37 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 38c | 899$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…c334backed Yes | 64c | 564.7$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +174.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 8c | 499.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 38c | 399.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 385$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 17c | 356.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 36c | 300$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed No | 39c | 258$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 39c | 239$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 72c | 117.78$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 54c | 116.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed No | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 36c | 111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e30dbacked Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 62c | 54.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…618cbacked No | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked No | 40c | 50.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -65%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…22f8backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a1…9a02backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…3dabbacked Yes | 77c | 43.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 41c | 42.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…8929backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ce…b80abacked No | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…c2f7backed Yes | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b7…bafdbacked Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…ff7fbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c14…5f22backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes | 78c | 29.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 71cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6532…e7c1backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.