Poker · one pick
Wallet 0x4fd3…ca07 got this wrong.
Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x4fd39dfc66a5c4ec8b476856edc2b2edc9b2ca07/m/0x3715ee1a84aa476342ac40db1c3144a093e9e1b2a5d50825ccc92e99e34785bd
Rebuilt .
What this wallet called, and what happened
- Backed
- Yesat 15c — the average price it paid on that side
- What happened
- No won · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Position
- 13,453 shares$1,965 spent on the side it backed
- P/L held to resolution
- -$1,964.99-100% on this pick, not cash withdrawn
TailMyPicks grades a pick on the market’s winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand — buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once opposing buys cancel each other share for share, so a fully hedged market yields no pick at all.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
One call is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Poker record.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4fd3…ca07in Poker | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
These 7 columns describe every qualified pick this wallet holds in Poker and say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins over what the prices it paid already implied, which is what separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
From here
- This wallet’s whole record, category by categoryEvery category it is scored in, with the ones below 50 counted as loudly as the ones above.
- Everyone who was on this market30 wallets hold a qualified pick here, largest position first, each with its Poker record.
- Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)The venue’s own page for the question. TailMyPicks never calls Polymarket while rendering — this is a link you follow, not a request this page makes.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.