Movies · resolved market
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32d71a7887376e2fda211cea22665680e01a23f6d2947d44eb00569184b5b6e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,720,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,809,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,720,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 14c | 419,255$57,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,898.18 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e12…603ebacked Yes | 13c | 37,790$4,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,753.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bc…9be9backed Yes | 14c | 30,520$4,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,152.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8734backed Yes | 8c | 25,243$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 26c | 21,231$5,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,581.7 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…b943backed No | 69c | 20,949$14,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,459.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…0bfcbacked Yes | 6c | 16,356$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.29 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 12c | 15,935$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 77c | 12,891$9,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,987.49 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 5c | 10,888$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 5c | 10,379$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 74c | 8,226$6,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,137.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 72c | 8,000$5,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,251.22 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…974cbacked Yes | 13c | 7,716$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…2264backed Yes | 8c | 6,900$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 10c | 6,325$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.94 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 11c | 6,088$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.08 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 77c | 6,000$4,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 9c | 5,700$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.58 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 5,317$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 4c | 5,269$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.61 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…0684backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 4c | 4,819$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.79 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 5c | 4,475$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.41 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 16c | 4,310$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 7c | 4,299$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 3,698$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.14 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e05…a2edbacked Yes | 5c | 3,678$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes | 4c | 3,486$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 10c | 3,286$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…b3d5backed Yes | 8c | 3,284$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 40c | 3,200$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.89 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 7c | 3,178$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 79c | 2,973$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.94 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…df79backed Yes | 3c | 2,941$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…a3cbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,909$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,908$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 77c | 2,791$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe100…971abacked Yes | 11c | 2,778$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +296.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 14c | 2,680$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.22 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 73c | 2,541$1,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.44 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 32c | 2,504$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 70c | 2,419$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.98 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 17c | 2,358$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.78 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…95b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,318$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0912…5739backed No | 76c | 2,299$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…8598backed Yes | 9c | 2,180$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,083$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 2c | 2,062$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,925$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 4c | 1,759$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 4c | 1,750$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae6…8b76backed Yes | 9c | 1,663$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcab…159cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,611$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +265.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8555…4c4bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,533$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f28…82e0backed Yes | 5c | 1,513$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca5…701abacked Yes | 7c | 1,373$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,321$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.08 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 16c | 1,249$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.74 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…2346backed Yes | 6c | 1,056$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,050$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +303.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.59 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd4…a1febacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…e17ebacked Yes | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…89acbacked Yes | 43c | 947.81$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 16c | 920$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked No | 65c | 913.89$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…a586backed Yes | 3c | 909.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141e…8c87backed Yes | 6c | 862.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 5c | 799.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…0915backed Yes | 4c | 796.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 10c | 762$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 699.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf269…0460backed Yes | 10c | 667.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +386.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 17c | 650$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 4c | 635.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed No | 65c | 594$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.74 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 30c | 593.37$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 4c | 572.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746a…0772backed Yes | 19c | 526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…56b0backed Yes | 6c | 520.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8a…b6dfbacked Yes | 20c | 511.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes | 3c | 504.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…1aa0backed Yes | 11c | 500.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…3a8cbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 8c | 461.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…63b9backed Yes | 7c | 429.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Yes | 30c | 415$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 4c | 412.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 7c | 410.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 38c | 400$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 50c | 369.03$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…256dbacked Yes | 3c | 345.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 6c | 321.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.