Movies · resolved market
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b5681b48d402a6249b62ff3238f0f0d98f4eecea0cafe210d5253e696c77bea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,135,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $772,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,135,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes | 0c | 70,556$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa12…e785backed Yes | 1c | 58,015$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 52,915$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…62bbbacked Yes | 1c | 50,000$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13b…92f0backed Yes | 0c | 40,755$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 32,552$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18e…014abacked Yes | 0c | 32,028$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…df79backed Yes | 1c | 30,376$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 23c | 29,226$6,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,806.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 60c | 21,813$13,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,800.39 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Yes | 0c | 19,174$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 40c | 17,511$6,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,917.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0912…5739backed Yes | 1c | 16,909$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,578$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 50c | 11,212$5,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,627.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 3c | 10,604$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Yes | 1c | 10,200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 67c | 10,084$6,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,284.8 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…6e0bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…c116backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a3…09b0backed Yes | 1c | 9,403$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,674$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…0bfcbacked Yes | 1c | 8,540$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…3a8cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,347$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 23c | 8,291$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.49 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 41c | 8,121$3,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,310.23 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…7af9backed Yes | 1c | 7,984$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,799$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +303.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…30b7backed Yes | 0c | 7,642$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 35c | 7,642$2,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,696.15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 0c | 7,484$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8555…4c4bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,380$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…284dbacked No | 69c | 7,361$5,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…b942backed No | 71c | 6,713$4,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 0c | 5,992$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 12c | 5,758$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.71 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 3c | 5,580$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…33e9backed Yes | 1c | 5,567$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked No | 64c | 5,405$3,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bc…9be9backed Yes | 55c | 5,383$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 44c | 5,000$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b2…7ee8backed Yes | 1c | 4,836$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed No | 45c | 4,750$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,612.64 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes | 1c | 4,626$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 0c | 4,579$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 39c | 4,441$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.97 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 43c | 4,262$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.02 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…b05abacked Yes | 1c | 4,168$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +335.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f28…82e0backed Yes | 1c | 3,916$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1108…af34backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…5672backed Yes | 1c | 3,152$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 38c | 2,972$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…9a19backed Yes | 1c | 2,945$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae6…8b76backed Yes | 1c | 2,871$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 55c | 2,500$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.99 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 1c | 2,378$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 46c | 2,268$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.59 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c5…f7c6backed Yes | 2c | 2,030$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,746$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.47 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 1c | 1,721$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…8f9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,673$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,631$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 33c | 1,630$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.65 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked No | 49c | 1,514$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.44 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 28c | 1,473$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a61…e424backed Yes | 1c | 1,262$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…0b8fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,249$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.63 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 45c | 1,215$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.55 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 39c | 1,200$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 1,139$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.52 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…c87cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,092$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 12c | 1,050$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.53 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 44c | 1,034$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.02 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b94…2129backed No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 80c | 995.63$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…b9cebacked Yes | 36c | 990$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 48c | 901.67$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.64 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 40c | 840$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.2 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…3cf2backed No | 63c | 825$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 47c | 800$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…e17ebacked No | 51c | 789.99$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 38c | 777$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.59 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 31c | 764.71$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.98 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed No | 60c | 684.46$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…56b0backed No | 65c | 676.2$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…01f3backed Yes | 37c | 655$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…7cd2backed No | 78c | 642.28$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.