Movies · resolved market
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a0c19a8a75257283bdad2066b117b0be7f7dcf0853b78cb02efc750ccc1f970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 13c | 20,944$2,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,716.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 20c | 8,150$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.67 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Yes | 2c | 7,391$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes | 28c | 7,151$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 78c | 5,633$4,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.21 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…3d6fbacked Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 9c | 4,361$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.45 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 24c | 3,945$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.14 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 25c | 3,497$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.92 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…95b2backed Yes | 3c | 3,429$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 5c | 3,309$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 10c | 3,290$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked No | 77c | 3,253$2,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 4c | 2,733$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 15c | 2,685$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.41 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,642$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.84 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…2264backed Yes | 17c | 2,567$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…0bfcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,521$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 12c | 2,170$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18e…014abacked Yes | 7c | 2,105$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8734backed Yes | 14c | 1,978$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 9c | 1,953$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 12c | 1,936$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 12c | 1,742$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.48 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 4c | 1,707$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02b2…7ee8backed Yes | 1c | 1,660$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 18c | 1,454$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 35c | 1,454$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 13c | 1,407$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…05a0backed Yes | 7c | 1,393$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 24c | 1,351$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.06 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a61…e424backed Yes | 4c | 1,208$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0912…5739backed Yes | 15c | 1,056$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 29c | 1,014$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.99 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 13c | 990.91$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.82 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 14c | 874$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed No | 78c | 868.3$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 846.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcab…159cbacked Yes | 9c | 794.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +265.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 783.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 21c | 727$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.91 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes | 2c | 719.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…5672backed Yes | 6c | 710.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 18c | 707.88$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…2eabbacked Yes | 7c | 706$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 14c | 698.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…0b8fbacked Yes | 4c | 615.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9499…de32backed Yes | 15c | 612.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 18c | 587.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 78c | 587.36$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.94 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…974cbacked Yes | 20c | 567.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 18c | 555$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes | 5c | 531.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 12c | 530$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 529.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 33c | 511$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.53 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…5acfbacked Yes | 4c | 505.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked Yes | 4c | 473.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 34c | 470.58$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…f0e9backed Yes | 6c | 424.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 12c | 419.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 3c | 383$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 28c | 360.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 17c | 349.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…33e9backed Yes | 3c | 344.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 16c | 335$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 26c | 334.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 30c | 321$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f28…82e0backed Yes | 6c | 290.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 27c | 276$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe567…e4debacked Yes | 11c | 271.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 24c | 268$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe100…971abacked Yes | 8c | 260$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +296.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 9c | 252.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 12c | 250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…e58bbacked Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 234.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…23bebacked Yes | 9c | 232.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…c87cbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9647…c18abacked Yes | 18c | 221.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 15c | 198.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 11c | 197$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 185.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes | 11c | 183.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 10c | 177.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…bdf0backed Yes | 6c | 173.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 9c | 166.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 21c | 165.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575e…5b86backed Yes | 13c | 155.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…1aa0backed Yes | 13c | 145.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…d38fbacked Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5713…fe90backed Yes | 22c | 135.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…15dabacked Yes | 19c | 120.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross more than $170m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.