TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd7ea…795a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
29
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tennis, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 56 out of 100; worst Commodities at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rome: Andrea Guerrieri vs Arthur Ferybacked Andrea Guerrieri · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$92.86
Rome: Dalibor Svrcina vs Henry Bernetbacked Dalibor Svrcina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+37%+$41.67
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Filsbacked Arthur Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,010Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$990
Wuning 2: Li Tu vs Charles Broombacked Li Tu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$538Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$458.64
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolinabacked Elina Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$727Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$484.36
Wuning 2: Fajing Sun vs Giles Husseybacked Giles Hussey · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.11
Busan: Alex Bolt vs Rio Noguchibacked Alex Bolt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$618Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$485.25
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Elise Mertensbacked Elise Mertens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,078Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,077.87
Busan: August Holmgren vs Alexis Galarneaubacked August Holmgren · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$1,007.72
Oeiras 3: Valentin Royer vs Jurij Rodionovbacked Jurij Rodionov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.49
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Tom Gentzschbacked Henrique Rocha · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$11.3
Oeiras 3: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tiago Pereirabacked Tiago Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.36
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$721Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$720.62
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+471.4%+$754.29
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$107
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
All 9 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+119.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Ranking Matchesbacked Trace Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,960Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$1,540
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,433Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,432.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.