Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9150b35b7a55aed5cd3e9cac9059f368094a6de2335d176e3670a6ebec8ce4e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,098$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…9f62backed Yes | 1c | 940.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 1c | 938.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 21c | 884.09$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.57 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 564.08$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 4c | 397.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…5a89backed No | 68c | 299.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 49c | 290.23$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.06 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 31c | 261.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 247.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 6c | 230.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 68c | 228.12$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 193.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 62c | 143.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 137.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 60c | 118.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2876…752fbacked No | 52c | 116.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 31c | 116.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 38c | 114.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 78c | 112.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…c4d0backed Yes | 14c | 105.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 53c | 104.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 103.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 32c | 91.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 69c | 91.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 60c | 90.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 89.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 60c | 75.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 62c | 72.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 29c | 69.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 31c | 63.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57a…7e5cbacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 40c | 55.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 47c | 52.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…9c96backed No | 59c | 49.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 49c | 46.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 42.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 39.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 49c | 38.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked No | 57c | 36.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed No | 70c | 34.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…27cdbacked Yes | 36c | 33.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…a27cbacked No | 58c | 32.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 64c | 31.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 52c | 30.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…0512backed No | 77c | 30.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 29.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…8c3ebacked No | 69c | 28.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 55c | 26.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…5d00backed Yes | 44c | 25.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…8cfdbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 24.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 77c | 22.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…795abacked Yes | 49c | 20.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 69c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…7435backed No | 76c | 17.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed No | 67c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…da6ebacked No | 71c | 16.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.